The forecast for the week 10 – 14 October
On the dollar I felt confident enough to round up the week as macro data and comments from the US Federal Reserve gave reason to expect a rate hike soon. Against this background, stock indices showed a decline. I must say that even a weak data on the labor market could not reverse the situation.
The new week could bring the desired indices catalysts for growth. On Wednesday, September will be published minutes of the meeting. Even a little hint of insufficiently aggressive attitude control may be enough to index resumed growth. If Friday is also a report on retail sales will reflect the fall instead of rising 0.6%, the chances of increasing the Fed may be reduced, which will support the benchmarks.
In this case, the S & P 500 (ES) can aim at a return to the level of 2180.00. Dow Jones (YM) will be waiting at around 18,360 with a further target at 18,500.
Commodity and raw market
Oil noted 4-month highs. Taking into account the fact that according to Bloomberg, OPEC will meet next week to discuss the issue of the distribution of the reduction of production quotas at the energy source has the potential for further growth. An additional factor in favor of the increase of quotations may be, and the weakness of the dollar in the event of a mild mood Fed.
However, relatively high oil prices trigger increased activity of slate companies that could potentially lead to an increase in supply. In addition, as always, attention should be paid to data from the US Department of Energy. If the report is 6 weeks after the fall reflect gains, Brent (BRN), which at the moment looks a bit overbought, may develop in the correct area of the level of 50.00. But so far there are no grounds for a more impressive fall. Thus, the range of variation may be restricted to levels of 50.00 – 53.00.
This week the tone for trading in high it will set the mood for the dollar. As shown by the data on the labor market, while talking about the unconditional restoration of the American economy prematurely. This means that, despite all the attempts of the US Federal Reserve to convince the market ready to raise the rate in the near future, the market may be in doubt, although at this stage the probability of the December increase of 70.2%.
Thus, in many respects the situation will determine precisely the tone of the Protocol September meeting and reports on retail sales and consumer confidence in the United States. And comments Yellen on Friday. If the puncture is indicative of “pigeon” attitude of the Federal Reserve, the reports do not make it to the predicted values, and Yellen will not give any clear guidance on the dollar could be an outsider foreign exchange market. Against this background, the pair USD / JPY may take aim at a return to the district level 102,00.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.