Monthly Archives: December 2015

Review of December 21-25: Santa rally. Forecast for the week on December 28 – 31

In the week ended stock indexes were able to demonstrate growth. It appears that the pre-Christmas rally began. US benchmarks recovered, including on the background correction of the dollar. Dow Jones rose by 2.36%. NASDAQ added 2.2%. Some support they had received from the data on orders for durable goods, which came out worse than expected (-0.1% versus + 0.1%), which gave reason to hope that the Fed will not rush into further rate increase. The German DAX 30 (FDAX) rose by 2.18%. The support he receives on expectations of further stimulus from the European Central Bank. Hong Kong HSI on general optimism also finished the week higher by 2.1%.

NZD / USD adding 1.49%, supported by data on the trade balance, the deficit of which narrowed more than expected. AUD / USD rose 1.34% to a greater extent advantage of the weakening US currency.

Gold (XAU / USD) for a week showed a mixed trend. Yet it was able to finish with a total of 0.9%. The reason – the profit on the previously open position for sale on expectations the US Federal Reserve rate hike. Silver (XAG / USD) and could strengthen to 1.87%. Brent crude oil finished the week higher by 3.58%, even despite the fact that on Tuesday updated the 11-year low, falling to around 35.96.

Chart of the week:

brent crude oil chart

Brent crude oil chart

The economic data of the last week:

  • Monday. Central Bank of Azerbaijan announced the decision to let the currency in the “free floating”
  • Tuesday . US: Q3, GDP 2.0% vs. 1.9%
  • Wednesday. US: November, orders for durable goods excluding transportation -0.1% vs. + 0.1%
  • Thursday. US: Initial applications for benefits unemployment for the week of December 18 267 thousand. Less than the forecast 270 thousand.
  • Friday. Japan in November, the consumer price index of 0.3% – unchanged compared with October

Forecast for the week on December 28 – 31

Stock market

Ahead of us is another short work week. In addition, the macroeconomic calendar is not rife with meaningful reports. There are only published data on consumer confidence from the Conference Board, as well as a report on pending home sales transactions. Under normal circumstances, they would not have a significant impact, but in the conditions of low trading volumes, there may be bursts of volatility. Bullish numbers could push up US indices as give grounds to speak about the ongoing stabilization of the economy. Dow Jones (YM) as part of a New Year‘s rally may try to return to the level of 17820. Nasdaq (NQ) sets his sights on a return to the level at 4685.00.

Over the weekend, will be published data on industrial profits in China. Against this background, in the beginning of the week it will be interesting to watch the dynamics of the Hong Kong index HIS. If the report has once again confirmed its decline in the short term benchmark could come under pressure, falling to the area level 21800. However, this drop can be considered as a good entry point into long positions. The fact that the weak data from China once again raised expectations of additional stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. Medium-term aim of the index could be around 23,520.

Commodity and raw market

Oil prices finally attempted recovery from the lows. Brent gained some support against the background of data on commercial stocks in the United States from the EIA, reflected the decline. However, in general, while the situation for black gold is formed not the best way, since an imbalance of supply and demand on the world market is maintained, and the largest oil-producing countries continue to fight for market share. But if all the same in the coming week a similar report from the Energy Information Agency will record a further decline in stocks in the United States, Brent crude oil has a chance to return to the area level of 40.00.

An additional factor in favor of growth may be evidence of decline in production in the United States. The market has long been laid on such an outcome, since in the US the number of drilling rigs operating persistently reduced and now almost 67% lower than a year earlier. Of course, it is no reason to wait for a breakthrough in the long-term trend. But, anyway, you can expect that Brent foothold in the range of 35.00 – 40.00. Little support oil can get even against the background of a possible further weakening of the dollar, which is adjusted after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise rates.

Currency market

Next week will continue the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Friday’s data on the unemployment rate (3.3% vs. 3.2%) and household expenditure (-2.9% vs. -2.4%) were lower than expected. If more and data on retail sales and industrial production will be weaker than expected, all this may cast doubt on the mood that makes the Bank of Japan at the end of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy.

The controller takes the position: not to expand the volume of quantitative easing more than has already been done. Against this backdrop, USD / JPY pair is able to demonstrate short-term growth. But in the current circumstances it is considered as a good opportunity to enter the market short positions with the immediate goal at 119.80 and further 118.70. The fact that the market is highly likely to continue taking profits on previously open positions to buy the dollar, which will provide a couple of moderate pressure.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Review for December 14-18: on the market before the festive mood. Forecast for the week on January 21 – 25

In the week ended equity indices showed mixed trends. Rising early in the week gave way to a fall in its second half. The German DAX 30 (FDAX) rose 2.44%, including by getting the support of the incident euro. Hong Kong HIS also finished the week higher by 2.53%. But the US Dow Jones and the NASDAQ closed with a loss of 1.22% and 0.61%, respectively. After an initial positive reaction to the Fed‘s decision to raise the rate (which the market took as a sign of recognition of the regulator sufficient strength of the economy), benchmarks came under pressure. In part, this was due to the fall in oil prices and the decline in stock prices of commodity companies.
The negative dynamics of oil prices continue to rise, and asked the pair USD / CAD. Her quotes rose by 1.48%. The British pound lost 2% against the dollar. One of the factors of pressure on the pair GBP / USD began to weak data on the labor market of the country. In particular, the slowdown in growth of average wages.
Gold (XAU / USD) for a week has demonstrated a mixed trend, falling under the influence of the US Fed‘s decision, however, on Friday failed to recover part of the losses. At the end of five days working metal loses 0.96%. Silver (XAG / USD) has demonstrated growth, having strengthened by 1.08%. Brent crude oil finished the week down 3.79%, while remaining under the influence of fear of the gain imbalance of supply and demand on the world market.
Chart of the week:
brent crude oil chart

Brent crude oil chart

The economic data of the last week:
  • Monday. Eurozone: October, industrial production 0.6% higher than the forecast of 0.3%
  • Tuesday . US: November index of CPI + 0,5% against the forecast of 0.0%
  • Wednesday. US Federal Reserve decided to raise to 0.5% from 0.25%
  • Thursday. UK: November retail sales of 1.7% higher than the forecast of 0.5%
  • Friday. Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% and announced an increase in the volume of purchases from April ETF 300 billion yen

Forecast for the week on January 21 – 25

Stock market

The market is entering in the before the festive season. Usually on the eve of Christmas, American benchmarks show “Santa rally“. It is possible that a moderate strengthening of the index, and we will see over the coming weeks short, the more that the Fed clearly signaled that further tightening of monetary policy will be gradually (as a guideline increase of 100 basis points during 2016). However, the regulator’s decision demonstrates that it is quite optimistic about the state of the economy.

Therefore, if the published economic data is strong enough, the US indices may get an additional boost to growth. December 22 will be published final data on US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter. Wait for an active response to the report is only in the event that the figures will undergo substantial revision. Also noteworthy data on orders for durable goods and a report on new home sales. So, in the case of positive data, Dow Jones (YM) will be able to return to the level of 17690. Nasdaq (NQ) sets his sights on a return to the level at 4685.00. Although we should not forget that the activity in the market will decline in anticipation of the holidays, and on this background can pretty sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in prices.

Commodity and raw market

Attempting to roll back the level of 36.73 (a minimum of 14 December) is not too successful. Moreover, on Friday quotes of Brent copied at least in the moment of falling to around 36.39. Overall, at the current stage, the fundamental backdrop remains negative for oil. Fears of growing imbalance of supply are not reduced. The market is still impressed by the results of the last meeting of OPEC, which was not taken a decision on production quotas, which in fact, has made this index unregulated and once again confirmed the readiness of the cartel fight for their market share. In favor of the black gold goes and US Federal Reserve decision to raise rates.

Against this backdrop, the dollar strengthened, making it denominated assets more cheaply. But at the same time, OPEC‘s secretary general expressed fairly optimistic vein on oil prices, noting that they will resume growth in a few months. But such statements now the market does not care. Next week the market will usually monitor the data on commercial stocks in the US from the Energy Information Agency, as well as the state of production in the United States. The latest report reflected the growth of these indicators, while the market is waiting for signs of production cuts in the United States, as the number of working drilling in the country at 67% less than the year before. If the trend continues, the pessimism regarding the prospects of the oil can be added. But as long as the price is not fixed below level of 36.20 (at least 2008), open short positions is not necessary.

Currency market

This week the euro zone does not publish a large number of meaningful reports. Therefore, quite a high probability that the pair EUR / USD will continue to act out the divergence in monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. After the December meeting, it is obvious. European regulators extended the duration of the program of quantitative easing, and made it clear that, if necessary, will proceed in the direction of the stimulus, as the current mandate does not limit it to the measures taken. At the same time, the Fed, though, and made it clear that further tightening will be gradual, yet on the path of normalization of monetary policy. Against this background, the EUR / USD may continue to move in the support area 1.0680.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Review for on December 4 – December 11: what will the Fed say? Forecast for the week on December 14 – 18

In the week ended stocks came under pressure. Negative sentiment benchmarks demonstrate against the backdrop of lower oil prices, as well as on the eve of preparations for key US Federal Reserve meeting, which is expected to increase rates. US Dow Jones and NASDAQ lost 3.28% and 3.75%, respectively. The German DAX 30 (FDAX) lost 5.38%, came under additional pressure rising euro. HIS Hong Kong completes the week with a total of -5.04%. Stepped up pressure on the benchmark reports of the disappearance of the head of the board of directors Fosun International Ltd. In China, according to the Financial Time, the news sometimes precede official statements about the arrest or detention in corruption cases. What happened. Go Guanchan was the most major Chinese businessman involved in anti-corruption investigations.

Gold (XAU / USD) for a week showed a mixed trend. At the end of five days working metal loses 0.94%. Silver (XAG / USD) has demonstrated more impressive decline, closing at 4.09% lower than the previous week. Brent crude oil finished the week with a fall of 11.94%, while remaining under the influence of OPEC‘s decision, announced on December 4.

Chart of the week:

Brent crude oil chart

Brent crude oil chart

The economic data of the last week:

  • Monday. Germany: October, industrial production 0.2% lower than the forecast of + 0.7%
  • Tuesday. China November exports -6.8% vs. -5.0%
  • Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to lower the rate to 2.5% from 2.75%
  • Thursday. Australia in November, the employment rate of 71.4 thousand. Above the forecast -10.0 thousand.
  • Friday. US November retail sales of 0.2% vs. 0.3%

Forecast for the week on December 14 – 18

Stock market

All the attention of the market in the coming week will be focused on the decision of the US Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy, which will be announced on December 16. The fact that the regulator will raise the rate, there is almost no doubt. According to the data of the positions in the futures rate, today the likelihood of such an outcome has risen to 83.3% (against 79% the previous week). The fact of increase has been included in the price and is likely to provoke a reaction is not active. Where more interest will cause comments that the regulator will do after the meeting.

On the one hand, the US economy is feeling relatively well. But on the other hand, falling commodity prices could put downward pressure on consumer prices. Thus, if after a meeting of representatives of the Federal Reserve will understand that a further increase will occur very gradually, the dollar could come under pressure. At the same time the stock market this situation will be quite favorable. Against this background, the US indices may resume growth. Dow Jones (YM) will be able to return to the level of 17900. Nasdaq (NQ) sets his sights on a return to the resistance at 4730.00.

Commodity and raw market

Brent crude oil remained under pressure. Black gold can not recover from the blow dealt by the decision of OPEC. Recall that the cartel not only went to the decline in production, but could not work out at all any quota for the first time in decades. In fact, all this gives grounds to believe that production will be limited only by the company’s production capacity. As it became known, in November, production of OPEC member countries grew by 230.1 thousand barrels per day to 31.7 million. Of course, this only adds to fears of increasing oversupply in the world market. Negativity is added and the IEA forecasts that in 2016 that the increase in global consumption will slow to 1.23 million barrels per day from 1.79 million in 2015.

Technically Brent, breaking support at 40.00, opens its way on down to the level of 36.20 (2008 low). At this stage, the main factors that can contribute to a turn (while in the short term) look data on commercial stocks in the US, provided that the second week in a row affected by the fall, as well as evidence of acceleration of the fall in production in the United States (the latest figures reflected a decrease of 38 thousand barrels per day). Taking into account the fact that last year the number of drilling rigs operating in the US fell by 67% (does not currently have a working drilling of 524 units), such expectations are natural. Provided that they are justified, oil can still aim for a return to the area of ​​the level of 40.00.

Currency market

The decision of the US Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy can make its own changes in the dynamics of the major pairs. It is worth recalling that in the past, the dollar has grown, thanks to the expectations of the imminent start of the tightening cycle. However, if the market does not receive evidence that the rate the US regulator will raise aggressively, the dollar could come under pressure. Against this background the pair USD / JPY could fall to the district level of 118.80. An additional factor in favor of the yen could be the solution for the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which will be announced on 18 December. Recall that the revised GDP data for the country did not confirm the entry of the economy in a recession, and this reduces the chances of additional stimulus.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Bitcoin: Geopolitics and China push up cryptocurrency

Recently Bitcoin demonstrated quite strong growth. For this cryptocurrency have enough fundamental reasons. Uncertainty in the global economy calls into question the credibility of traditional currencies. In addition, we should also remember about geopolitical tensions. And this is a good reason to look for alternative assets. Also worth noting is the increased recent demand for Bitcoin in China. As a result of the devaluation of the yuan, the demand for bitcoins rose sharply: the volume of trading on the Chinese bitcoin exchanges within 2 months jumped from 700 million yuan to 3 billion yuan. This is happening against the backdrop of the tough stance of the Chinese government in respect of foreign exchange control. A Bitcoin, as we know, has no central governing body and its movement is difficult to track.

In the area of 420.550 level is resistance, which contained the growth of quotations Bitcoins. In the event of a break above this mark the “bulls” can be activated explicitly. If there is sufficient catalyst immediate goal may be the psychological resistance level of 500,000. In addition, and on the daily and intraday charts on prices are above the 50 moving average interval.

Bitcoin chart

Bitcoin chart

Trading analytics

Bitcoins (BTC/USD) – buy bitcoin – Entry price: 420,550. Goal: 495,000. Stop loss: 373,118.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP: a new attitude toward Obamacare

UnitedHealth Group this week announced its withdrawal from the sales of insurance policies through the exchange of Obamacare. In the words of Director General Stephen Hemsley, this trend has brought us only additional losses. UnitedHealth Group also ceases to pay brokerage commissions on sales. As expected, these factors will lead to lower insurance premiums and a drop in revenues.

At the end of the 3rd quarter of UnitedHealth Group demonstrates the weakening financial performance, moreover the company in November, revised forecasts downward by Q4 2015 and 2016.

The program itself begins to falter ObamaCare, due to achieve market saturation. The number of uninsured Americans at a minimum – 10.7%. Americans recognize the program expensive and not effective. At the same penalty for the lack of health insurance in 2016, is expected to become growth drivers weighty collection of premiums and increase the attractiveness of shares.

On the daily chart the stock price is below MA5 also retain move below MA50. On the half-hour and hourly chart there is lateral movement with large amplitude oscillations. MACD is in negative territory, signaling a negative trend.

unitedhealth group chart

UnitedHealth Group chart

Trading analytics

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) – sell UNH – Entry price: 115,5-116,5. Goal: 111,5. Stop loss: 118,5.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Review for November 30-December 4: the Fed plans no longer afraid of the market. Forecast for the week 7 – 11 December

Last week, stocks have shown contradictory dynamics. On Thursday, the benchmark came under pressure decision of the European Central Bank‘s monetary policy, which was not enough seating. But on Friday, the US Dow Jones and NASDAQ have been able to recover losses after a report on the labor market (in November, the number of new jobs increased by 211 thousand.). Overall, the week, they showed an increase of 0.17% and 0.67%, respectively. The German DAX 30 (FDAX) lost 3.76% on disappointment the insufficient measures taken by the European regulators. HIS Hong Kong was able to recover some of the losses suffered the previous week. The index showed an increase of 1.14%.

Precious metals to the end of the week could be restored. This is partly on profit taking after sales. Gold (XAU / USD) rose to two-week high (1088.72) by adding at the end of five days of 2.85%. Silver (XAG / USD) and closed higher by 3.44%. Brent crude oil finished the week down 3.74%. One of the reasons for the disappointment was the decision of OPEC.

The economic data of the last week:

  • Monday. Japan: October retail sales up 1.8% vs. -0.1% in September
  • Tuesday. Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.0%
  • Wednesday. UK: November, PMI in the construction sector, 55.3 vs. 58.2
  • Thursday. The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate to 0.3%, extended the quantitative easing program until March 2017, but no expanded it
  • Friday. US: November, the number of new jobs created is with / agricultural sector 211,000 – higher than the forecast 200,000

Forecast for the week 7 – 11 December

Stock market

The week ahead in terms of the planned macroeconomic statistics from the United States will be relatively quiet. The most interesting reports will be released only on Friday. It will be retail sales data. In general, the report is unlikely to be able to change the market expectations about the Fed‘s actions at a meeting to be held on 15 – 16 December. The mood, which showed Janet Yellen looks quite aggressive. The fact that the need to raise rates further this year and expressed the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data on the labor market also did not give reason to doubt that the regulator will decide to raise rates.

If the figures on retail sales will be released fairly strong, the US benchmark may continue to grow. The fact is that in recent years the market perceives good Statistics exclusively, as a sign of stability of the state of the national economy. Especially because there is no reason to say that the Fed will be to force the issue in raising rates. Rather, motion in this direction will be quite slow. Thus, Dow Jones (YM) after a level of 17900 can target the growth in the region 18250. Nasdaq (NQ) will grow more complicated, because the benchmark is in the area earlier highs, and to continue to grow, it will need to overcome resistance at 4730.00 but this will require additional catalysts.

Commodity and raw market

Meeting of the OPEC countries, as a whole, presented no surprises. However, Iraqi Oil Minister Adil Abdel Mahdi said at the final press conference that OPEC should not have a hard quota on oil production. Formally, the cartel has kept the quota at 30 million barrels a day. But it was decided to leave unchanged the actual production (about 31.5 million barrels). If we take into account the fact that OPEC has recently consistently exceeded quotas, then, in fact, that decision will not result in a significant increase in supply in the market. That is why oil brand Brent, although it showed a fall, but rather restrained, just returned to the area of ​​the recent lows. The decision of the cartel confirms that it is ready at any price to fight for market share.

Now, when the OPEC meeting was over, the market will be a particular attention should be short-term forecasts for the Energy Information Agency of the energy market, which will contain data on global supply and demand. If, however, the surplus will decline offers, oil can get support. Also, do not exclude from the field of view of the situation with oil production in the United States and the state of commercial stocks. Judging from the data on the number of operating drilling rigs (noted another reduction to 545 units), in the United States throughout 2016 should mark a gradual decline in production because the life cycle of shale is relatively short, and the development of new investments are required, which at the current level of prices on the black gold itself is unlikely to be justified. In the light of particular importance for oil will play a report from the US Energy Information Agency on Wednesday. We ate it at least reflect a slight reduction of commercial stocks, Brent could move in the area of ​​the level 45.00. Otherwise, it is possible to short-term decline and renewal lows marked in August.

Currency market

This week’s monetary policy decisions will be announced the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. British control at the November meeting, gave the market a clear message that the increase in 2016 can be expected. And significant reaction from the pound can be seen only when the regulator deviates from this line. But the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at a meeting in October made it clear that the drop in rates from the current 2.75% is not excluded. As the regulator, the growth of the New Zealand dollar is undermining the economic recovery, and if it continues, it will have a devastating impact on inflation and foreign trade. Thus, if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decides to lower the rate, the pair NZD / USD may return to the area of ​​0.6500 level.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

SILVER TRADING: data from the US may increase pressure on the metal

Silver remains under pressure. As before, the precious metals are being adversely affected by expectations of changes in monetary policy the US Federal Reserve. The prices laid likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed on 16 December. In such circumstances, money that does not bear interest income traditionally cheaper. Furthermore, in the current situation, the dollar clearly demand. The growth rate of the US dollar makes assets denominated in it less. Ahead will publish data on the index of business activity in the US service sector (December 3) and report on non-farm payrolls (December 4). If the figures come out at least in line with expectations, the dollar may get a new impetus to growth, which will put pressure on precious metals.

In the area of 13,900 level prices formed a support. Provided that the level is overcome, could increase sales that trigger the acceleration of the fall. On the daily charts and intraday quotes are kept below the 50-interval moving average, which also allows you to wait for the fall.

silver trading chart

Silver trading chart

Trading analytics

SILVER (XAG/USD) – sell silver – Entry price: 13,900. Goal: 13,780. Stop loss: 14,005.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Review for November 30: too much excitement ahead. Forecast for Tuesday, December 1

Now that the holidays are behind us, the market is once again focused on the economic reports. This week promises to be very busy. The US dollar experienced a strong demand from the opening of trading, as many expect that published in the coming days, US data confirm the strength of the economy and dispel doubts about the December Fed rate hike. As a result, EUR / USD sliding to 1,0565, GBP / USD – to the April minimum of 1.4993. Retail sales in Germany fell short of forecasts on a monthly basis, however, for the current year figure rose by 2.8%, showing the best gains since 1994. Apparently, the recovery of the labor market and the flow of refugees have created favorable conditions for the increase in expenses.

Commodity markets have demonstrated again contradictory dynamics. Copper (HG) again weakened in the area of 2.0450, Gold tried to recover from Friday’s crash, but Brent crude oil slipped again in the area of 44.50 dollars per barrel. Stock indices were moving in different directions as though DAX (FDAX) did not change himself and continued to move upwards.

Chart of the day:

gbp/usd chart

GBP/USD chart

Economic data of the previous day:

  • Japan: October retail sales up 1.8% vs. -0.1% in September
  • Germany: October retail sales -0.4%, + 2.1% vs. 0.0%, 3.5% in September
  • US: November Chicago PMI index 48.7 vs. 54.0

Forecast for Tuesday, December 1

Stock market

It will be a very busy week, and for stock indices around the world will have plenty of reasons for movements. To date, more than others pleases the speaker of the German DAX (FDAX), which receives support in the double weakness of the national currency and expectations of the soft tone of the European Central Bank at the next meeting. It is worth noting that the European regulator has long made it clear that he was ready to use all of the most innovative forms of influence on the economy with a view to stimulating. And all of this is already in the price of the German benchmark. Most likely, the dynamics of the DAX this week will be divided into two phases: “before” and “after” the meeting.

From this we can see two tactics. Until Thursday the index can feel the support, so there may be short-term purchases with a view to 11540. However, during the actual performances of Mario Draghi might work strategy of “sell the fact” that means that it is on Thursday may be the most attractive levels for the medium term sales index.

Commodity and raw market

Brent again moves to the lower limit of the established range 43,00-46,50 last week. At this time, one of the drivers of this movement was Iran. Tehran became the owner of the two-day conference last weekend, inviting foreign investors to 70 oil and gas projects. Iranian authorities believe that all sanctions will be lifted within the next 5 weeks, after which it will flow to the flow of money, which will lead to a sharp increase in production of oil.

So, a few figures. In October, the country was producing 2.7 million barrels of oil per day. The authorities plan to bring it to 5.7 million by the end of 2020. Last year, exports fell to 1.4 million barrels a day from 2.6 million in 2011, even before the imposition of sanctions. Once sanctions are lifted, Iran, plans to add to the market of 500 thousand barrels per day. Considering that already November 4 will be a meeting of OPEC in terms of production, the tension in the market is growing. While the baseline scenario laid unchanging situation that puts pressure on the position of the oil. This leads us to believe that until Thursday, Brent will move to the lower boundary of the range, then may turn around “on the facts“. In this regard, we can consider two strategies: current short selling in order to 43.00 and the subsequent purchase of the approach to the specified point.

Currency market

Among other things, it attracted great interest in the dynamics of GBP / USD. The pair came under pressure of capital flows on the EUR / GBP, observed between the euro area and the United Kingdom at the end of the month. However, the main reason for the weakness of the pound lies in the comments of the Bank of England and the economic data, which have not yet created the conditions to speak about the need to increase rates.

Given the proximity of the meeting FOMC, which could take place the transition to full tightening of monetary policy the Fed, GBP / USD can only accelerate the fall. At the moment, the key is the breakdown of a strong technical and psychological barrier of 1.50. If the breakdown takes place, the movement may continue up to 1.4950. However, it is this area we consider to be the most attractive for the medium-term purchases pairs.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.