Review for October 12: all good, except for the dollar. Forecast for Tuesday, October 13

By | October 12, 2015

Monday was fairly quiet and relatively positive for all except the US dollar. Speech by Stanley Fischer with his hints that a rate hike may not be in a position once again undermined the US currency and supported the pair EUR / USD, which could grow to 3-week high of 1.1396. Demonstrated good dynamics and commodity currencies: AUD / USD reached nearly 2-month high of 0.7377.

Stock indexes on Monday morning showed positive, but the general background stood out only the BritishFTSE (Z), which came under slight pressure due to the negative dynamics of individual stocks in its composition. Commodity markets are still in a good mood. Gold was getting up to a maximum of $ 1168.94 per ounce. Meanwhile, Brenttouched 53.58 dollars a barrel, but by the close of trading returned to the area of 51.90 dollars per barrel.

Chart of the day:

aud/usd chart
AUD/USD chart

Economic data of the previous day:

  • Evaluation of Ferrari in IPO just under $ 10 billion. In the framework of the initial public offering of 17 million shares of the company’s value should be around 9.8 billion dollars
  • By Glencore plans to sell an additional copper mines in Australia and Chile to raise additional capital
  • Stanley Fischer said at a meeting of the IMF in Peru, that the increase in Fed rates in 2015 – only the expectation but not a guarantee
Forecast for Tuesday, October 13
Stock market
It is very interesting at the weekend by the representative of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer, who is considered one of the most aggressive members of the FOMC. He said at a meeting of the IMF in Peru, that the increase in rates this year is still likely, however, it is rather “expectation, not a promise“, and things can change, if the global economy will bring down the American path to recovery. He specially touched decline in exports due to the cooling of growth rates, low levels of investment, due to the fall in oil prices, as well as “disappointing” results of the latest report from the US labor market. 
All this proves once again that the chances of even the December Fed rate increase significantly fall. And if we consider the development of the pessimistic scenario, then talk about the probability of the fourth round of quantitative easing seem more real. Thus, the US indices is very good chance to continue to grow with the probability of achieving 4440 on NASDAQ (NQ), 17280 of Dow Jones (YM) and in 2040 by S & P (ES). The only obstacle on the way up can act weak quarterly reports from the corporate sector. 
Commodity and raw market
Yesterday it became known that the mining giant Glencore put up for sale two mines in Australia and Chile. While the company is considering a proposal and hinted that it is not the fact that the sale does take place. However, the case is very important because it indicates the state of the mining sector suffering from a sharp fall in commodity prices and forced to work at a loss, just to avoid losing market share.
Depending on how you behave larger competitors Glencore, will be determined by the fate of the market and industrial products, as long as copper (HG) is held at a good level and feeling pretty confident. We recommend that you use every correction of the metal down to enter the market long positions at more attractive levels. The immediate goal on the way up to the area of copper may be 2.4680. 
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.
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