Monthly Archives: September 2015

TESLA: first Model X on sale

Shares of Tesla, is expected to receive a positive momentum thanks to sales on the eve of the first electric crossover Model X. Recall that in August, the company Elon Musk announced at the end of September the first edition of Model X, and in early September gave the first details and specifications on the electric vehicle, and started accepting pre-orders.

Model X is already too fast (a set speed of 60 miles per hour in 3.2 seconds) and has a cruising range per charge of 240 miles. The maximum speed of 155 miles per hour. However, the problem of the machine is the high cost – $ 132,000 that Tesla will require additional efforts in the promotion and positioning of the new product.

Since the company has kept within the planned deadlines, which were some market concerns, Tesla shares at the general improvement in market conditions may show growth. However, for long-term upward trend required more powerful fundamental factors, including access to break-even, which is possible only in scale. The company should actively increase sales of electric cars in order to reduce fixed costs.

In case of break-up of short-term downtrend, formed September 25, the stock short-term downward movement interrupted. On 15minutnyh graphs generated break the resistance of the divergence on RSI and MACD. On the daily chart is considered a return to the MA5.

tesla chart
Tesla chart
Trading analytics
Tesla (TSLA)   –   buy tesla   –    Entry price: 249,9. Goal: 258,7. Stop loss: 244,9.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

PLATINUM: metal remains under pressure

Platinum is pressurized. A key factor that exerts pressure on the metal, is the situation in the automotive industry. The scandalous story of the Volkswagen Group to jeopardize the whole sector. As is known, the platinum used in the manufacture of catalytic converters for diesel engines. Given that history with Volkswagen issues arose just in time for this type of engine, it can be assumed that the demand for diesel cars will decrease in the near future that will provoke a decline in demand for the metal and all this against the backdrop of a recovery in production in South Africa.

In the district level 900.0 is quite strong psychological support level. His breakthrough could lead to increased activity of the sellers in the market, that will trigger the acceleration of reduction of quotations metal. Besides, it is necessary to consider that in July 2014 with the platinum is in a downtrend.

platinum chart
Platinum chart

Trading analytics

Platinum (PL)   –   sell platinum  –   Entry price: 900,0. Goal: 833,2. Stop loss: 958,3.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Review of September 21-25, when stocks in a minor key. Forecast for the week September 28 – October 2

Despite the rather meager macroeconomic calendar, last week, the markets found some reasons for movements. Negative news from the corporate sector, as well as weak data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector in China (PMI Caixin came out at 47 vs. 47.3 in August) put pressure on stock indices. Released on Friday revised upwards (3.9% vs. 3.7%) data on US GDP for Q2 could provoke a short-term pullback. As a result, Dow Jones lost 2.29%. NASDAQ closed with a decline of 2.67%. Hong Kong HSI ended the week with a total of -2.66%. The German DAX 30 (FDAX) fell by 3.09%.

GBP / USD pair dropped to 2.25%, by updating at least 4.5 months at the level of 1.5151. From their own catalysts may be called a data record deficit of public debt since 2012. In the future, the decline was due to the changing expectations of monetary policy. After a rather soft Fed statement, to increase by the Bank of England is now expected no earlier than 2016.

Gold, after a downward correction in the beginning of the week, could develop a growth on the flight from risky assets. Quotes pointed high at 1156.69, but to close the week slightly rolled under the influence of the US GDP data. As a result, the asset has appreciated by 0.6%. Brent crude oil has not gone beyond the previously established range of 47.00 – 50.80. “Black gold” finished the week higher by 1.28%.

Chart of the week:

gold trading
Gold chart

Economic data of the last week:

  • Monday. US: August, sales of second homes -4.8% vs. -1.3%
  • Tuesday . Volkswagen is involved in the scandal. US regulators have found software that deceive consumers and supervisors
  • Wednesday. China: September, industrial PMI 47,0 against the forecast of 47.5
  • Thursday. Norway’s central bank lowered the rate to 0.75% from 1.0%. Taiwan’s central bank lowered the rate for the first time since 2009 to 1.75%
  • Friday. US: Q2. GDP revised to increase to 3.9% from 3.7%, according to preliminary estimates
Forecast for the week September 28 – October 2
Stock market
US stocks is clearly not in the best shape. The situation on the market develops quite uncertain and the fact that the Fed does not give any clear signal regarding the timing of the rate hike, it only exacerbates. Plus additional shocks in the form of news from Caterpillar (CAT) and the scandalous stories with Volkswagen. Last, it must be said, it jeopardizes all automakers and paper supply companies, now infamous group. Against this background, you should not completely exclude the possibility of further decline benchmarok as the market is unlikely to be at this stage interested in risky assets.
Dow Jones (YM) can return to the area 15900 level with a further target at 15535 in the event of a breakthrough. Nasdaq (NQ) is able to be reduced to the level of 4165.00. Although towards the end of the week the market will begin to prepare for the publication of a key report on the US labor market. If the number of newly created jobs will exceed 200 thousand, and the unemployment rate keeps at least since 2008, the market may perceive this as a signal that the Fed has no reason to endlessly delay the rate hike. The first reaction can be drop in the indices, but showed some background, to the end of the week, they can recover quite quickly.
Commodity and raw market
Quotes of oil Brent (BRN) continue to be held within the previously established range bound 47.00 – 50.80. Recently, there was not any new catalysts that can snatch the black gold from the “outset“. Rusty quotes explicitly prevent concerns about the global economic outlook. If you pay attention to the weekly data from the EIA, they were mixed.
On the one hand, there was a decrease of commercial stocks. But this momentum indicator is unlikely to continue to show, because the holiday season is behind us, and refineries close for prevention. However, the decline in production halted. At the end of the week rate rose to 9.136 million barrels per day. But it does not cause particular concern, as is the number of working rigs in North America continues to decline. And it allows you to wait for the resumption of the fall in production. Once the number of operating drilling falls below the June lows, oil prices in the short term may resume growth and will probably try to pass the upper limit of the range, aiming at further growth in the area of ​​the level 52.10.
At a time when stock markets are “storm” and intensified concerns about the global economic outlook, demand will be particularly safe assets. In particular, the positive dynamics can demonstrate Gold (XAU / USD), provided that the drop in the stock markets will continue. In support of the precious metal can also act and the next stage of “currency wars“. Soft monetary policy pursued by a large number of central banks can contribute to acceleration of global inflation, and gold, as it is known, it is a good hedge such risks. Against this backdrop, gold could resume growth with the immediate goal at the level of 1164.00 dollars per troy ounce.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

SILVER: the weak dollar pleases metal

Silver gained enough support amid weak data on orders for durable goods in the United States. Outside, though, and came in line with expectations, but showed a decline of 2%. Thus, doubts with respect to the US Federal Reserve rate hike looks justified. Thus, uncertainty remains and, if within his speech today Janet Yellen did not make clear, the dollar could remain under pressure, allowing it denominated assets grow in value.

The district level is the resistance of 15.212, which restrain the growth of the metal in the beginning of the week. With the passage of this level can increase the activity of buyers that will provoke further growth of quotations in the area of recent highs. Especially because on intraday charts quotes fixed above the 50 moving average interval.

silver chart
Silver chart
 Trading analytics
SILVER (XAG/USD)    –    buy silver   –   Entry price: 115,5. Goal: 120,00. Stop loss: 112,5.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

NIKE Inc: on the eve of the quarterly report

Nike Inc. has prepared to announce quarterly financial results. Publication of the report is scheduled for September 24 after the close of trading. In anticipation of this event is traditionally increased stock volatility, which increases the overall turbulence in global stock markets.

The forecast is to receive the largest sportswear company $ 8.2 billion in revenue, which implies a 3% increase compared to the same quarter in 2014. It should be noted that the estimate of revenue deteriorated relative orientations of June, when the estimated annual dynamics at the level of 3.5%. At the same time, improved expectations for net income for the quarter from $ 1 billion to $ 1,04 billion . Thus, investors believe the increase in margins from 12.1% to 12.7%, indicating that improve business performance. As a result, it is assumed that in its series, Nike is a strong brand that will spur investors to buy its shares.

Previous reports Nike ahead of market forecasts, so keep a positive attitude in anticipation of the publication and the upcoming quarterly data. A positive factor for the stock also advocates increasing the eve of the company Telsey Advisory Group target shares from $ 122 to $ 128. The consensus target price Nike shares before the publication of the quarterly report is $ 122.5.

Stocks traded near all-time highs. The cost is in the range of the rising trend channel formed after the collapse of 24 August. On the daily chart the price kept rising above MA5 and MA13. There is increasing MACD. On the hourly chart there outset that gives the lower limit of the landmark entry, given the upward trend.

nike chart
Nike chart
Trading analytics
NIKE (NKE) – buy nike – Entry price: 115,5. Goal: 120,00. Stop loss: 112,5.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Review for September 22: Chinese visit and speech Draghi. Forecast for Wednesday, September 23

The Japanese market is closed for a second day, but this does not prevent sharp fluctuations of currencies to show. EUR / USD continued its downward movement, reaching a minimum of 1.1112, while the other pairs try to keep within narrow ranges. GBP / USD has weakened under the influence of disappointing economic reports: the volume of borrowing in the public sector were significantly higher than expected. In fact figure peaked in 2012, prompting fears about rising financial costs UK. As a result, the pair went down to 1.5340.

Stock indices have come under pressure in the morning. And the tone was set by the European benchmarks, which greatly worried over the fate of the company Volkswagen. The automaker is accused of defrauding environmental organizations that heavy fines for the company. Behind him and suffered the action FORD (F). Commodity markets are also remain in narrow ranges, although precious metals began to suffer losses. Gold traded at $ 1125.70 per ounce. Meanwhile, Brent down to 47.68, but managed to recover above 48.00 dollars per barrel.

Chart of the week:

ford stock quote
Ford stock quote

Economic data of the previous day:

  • Volkswagen shares have fallen by 20% after US regulators found software that deceive consumers and inspectors. Concern can be fined $ 18 billion  
  •  UK: August, a peak deficit of public borrowing in 2012

Forecast for Wednesday, September 23

Stock market
Xi Jinping, head of China, on Tuesday arrived in the US on a business trip. Despite the fact that this event is more political in nature, the individual comments of officials on both sides may have an impact on the stock markets and the US and China. Great importance will play the tone of the statements. If there are echoes of the accusations of currency manipulation or to restrict trading activity in connection with reaching a record US deficit of trade balance with China, it can put pressure on the position of S & P (ES), Dow Jones (YM) and Hang Seng (HSI).
Also, watch the performances of officials from the Federal Reserve. Now this issue is a dominant value. A sharp change in sentiment in the market was caused by aggressive comments Bullard. If Lockhart followed his example, this may be another factor of pressure on the US indices.
Commodity and raw market
Brent feels insecure, even though the conditions for its recovery still exist. For example, yesterday it was reported that Halliburton Co, second service company in the oil and gas industry, announced the dismissal of workers in one of the units, referring to the low oil prices. This is another confirmation that the market continues to contract, and thus an excess of offers to speak recklessly.
Today, the asset must pass two tests. The first will be during the Asian session on the publication of data from China. Data on business activity in the manufacturing sector will enable to judge the state’s second-largest economy in the world. If the index is lower than expected, it could push for Brent with the immediate goal at the level of 46.90.
The second step will be the publication of the report on commercial oil stocks. The last time the index was lower than forecast, and the volume of production has reached nearly the minimum for the year. If this time the trend continues, you will see a recovery in demand for Brent with the immediate goal at 48.80 and further to 49.90 dollars per barrel.
Currency market
It is of great interest and dynamics of EUR / USD, which is from Friday has lost nearly 3%. Moreover, the pair may continue to move down on a large-scale reassessment of the prospects of the monetary policy of both central banks: the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. And it’s more in the European regulators. While the market was focused on increasing the rate of FOMC, it is actively ignored hints of the European Central Bank.
And hints suggest that the regulator is not happy with the slow pace of economic recovery in Europe. If today at the presentation Draghi will understand that it is possible additional quantitative easing program, EUR / USD could easily break the mark of 1.10. His role to play and the data on business activity that could once again point to the slow pace of economic recovery in the eurozone.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

EUR / GBP: the difference in the attitudes of central banks puts pressure on the pair

One of the main factors that can affect the dynamics of cross-country at this stage the expectations are for monetary policy adjustments. Recent data on the UK labor market, reflecting more active than expected (2.9% vs. 2.5%) increase in average wage growth suggest waiting for the price pressure due to the enhanced consumer activity. Against this background, the market once again, there were rumors that the Bank of England may soon decide on the rate increase. At the same time, by the European Central Bank offers a possible extension of the quantitative easing program, or the extension of its deadline. Therefore, the advantage at this stage is clearly on the side of the British currency.

In the area of 0.7216 level the pair has formed a support. A break of this level could lead to increased sales that will provoke a further decrease in quotations pairs. In addition, the prices were fixed below the 50 interval moving average, indicating the possibility of continuing the downward movement.

eur/gbp chart
EUR/GBP chart

Trading analytics

EUR/GBP    –    to sell a pair   –   Entry price: 0,7216. Goal: 0,7100. Stop loss: 0,7307.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

BRENT: production in the US will continue to fall

Brent oil prices trying to return to growth after a Friday night there were another decline in the number of drilling rigs operating in the US. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes in his traditional weekly report noted the reduction in the number of drilling rigs operating in the 8 units to 644 units. According to the results of the previous two weeks, the work was stopped 23 units.

Once prices fell to near $ 40 in August, the volume of drilling in the US again began actively to fall and have recorded a massive drop in production. According to recent data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA), oil production in the US decreased by 500 thousand barrels per day to 9.1 million from mid-June to mid-August.

The November contract found support in 47.15 and now steadily growing. If they can overcome the technically important resistance level 48.50, they can not believe the strength of the region of 50.00.

brent chart
Brent chart
Trading analytics
Brent (BRN)   –   buy oil   –   Entry price: 48,30. Goal: 50,30. Stop loss: 47,10.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

Review of September 14-18, when the Fed decision was thing of the past. Forecast for the week 21 – 25 September

In the week ended equity indices showed a mixed trend. Until the publication of the decision on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, they were growing up, but then turned around and the closure of the loss suffered. The reason lies in the fact that his failure to act, the Fed made it clear that he still fears for the state of the national economy. As a result, Dow Jones lost 0.92%. NASDAQ closed with a symbolic reduction of 0.18%. Hong Kong HSI ended the week with a total of + 1.45%. And at the same decision, the Fed. Low rates in the United States will prevent the accelerated capital outflows from China. The German DAX 30 (FDAX) fell by 2.32%.

Gold grew. First, under the influence is not enough strong data on consumer price index in the US, and later on the decision of the Federal Reserve. As a result, this week the asset has appreciated by 2.84%, pointing to a maximum of 1141.73. Silver added 3.8%. Brent crude oil finished the week with a loss of 2.69%. But it is worth noting that the black gold has not yet emerged from the previously established range of 47.00 – 52.20.

Chart of the week:

gold chart
Gold chart
Forecast for the week 21 – 25 September
Stock market
Clarity about the prospects for monetary policy after the meeting of September 16 – 17 has been added. But exactly, it became clear that the regulator fears for the future of their own economy and not sure that it will be able to keep the current pace of growth in a tighter monetary policy. In addition, the Fed fears that what is happening in the world would restrain economic activity and put additional downward pressure on inflation. Therefore, until the end of the year the market will continue to monitor very closely the macroeconomic statistics from the US. In the week ahead relevant reports scheduled for publication is not much.
Attention may involve data on orders for durable goods, as well as a final report on the pace of US economic growth in Q2. If GDP will be revised downwards by 3.7% according to preliminary estimates, the dollar could come under pressure. The fact that at the September meeting, the Fed revised its forecast for the growth rate for 2016 and 2017 years downward to 2.3% and 2.2%, 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively. And any evidence that the economy is indeed lowers turnover can have on stock indexes moderate pressure. In this case, Dow Jones (YM) may continue to decline in short term in the area of ​​level 15535. Nasdaq (NQ) is able to be reduced to the level of 4200.00. But it is possible that growth will resume later benchmarks on expectations that the period of low interest rates may be delayed for a longer period than before December 2015.
Now that the Fed meeting was over, the market may again switch the state of the Chinese economy. In particular, the impact will be published data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI Caixin) in September. It is expected a slight increase in the index (to 47.5 from 47.3 in August), but in general, the index is likely to hold out in the area of ​​the recession that will continue to put pressure on the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HSI). It is also a negative factor may make growing fears that China‘s measures taken by the authorities are not able to support economic growth in general and the stock market in particular. Against this background, the benchmark may be reduced in the area of ​​level 21090 with the further aim at around 20,300.
Commodity and raw market
Quotes of Brent crude oil continued to show mixed trends. And until then, until a sufficient catalyst to break the boundaries of one of the previously established range (47.00 – 52.20), to talk about the direction of travel will prematurely. The situation is in fact continues to be uncertain. On the one hand, OPEC predicts that by 2018, oil prices could rise in the area of ​​$ 80 per barrel. But at the moment the cartel is clearly going to continue to fight for the retention of market share, although at the expense of lower prices for black gold.
Recent data from the EIA reflected the reduction of commercial stocks and the decline in production to 9.117 million barrels per day. At the same time, the production decline is recorded for 6 consecutive weeks. A low oil prices trigger a series of bankruptcies in the oil and gas industry in the US and Canada, which will further reduce the supply of black gold on the world market. Recent data from Baker Hughes reflected further reductions in the number of working drilling in North America (which for the year fell to 59.77%). This gives reason to believe that the next report from the Energy Information Agency again reflect the decline in production in the United States. Against this background, oil quotes will be able to attempt to overcome the 50.00 level and continue to grow to around 52.20.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.

COPPER: upward correction may continue

Copper after a long decline beginning of an upward correction. While talking about scrapping the long-term downward trend for no reason. But wait for further growth in the short term, it is possible. First, concerns about a sharp slowdown in China‘s economy, which is the world’s largest consumer of the red metal, somewhat subsided. Secondly, during the last three months recorded a net demand for the metal. And this trend may continue, taking into account the recent events in Chile. There was a strong earthquake, which could lead to a reduction in the supply of copper from this country, which is one of the largest manufacturers. In such conditions create good preconditions for the growth of quotations of the red metal.

In the district level 2.4295 quotes to form a support. Given folding the fundamental trends in the approach to this mark can be activated the “bulls” that will strengthen the demand for the metal, returning it to the area of 2.4838 recent highs. In addition, quotes asset anchored above the 50-day moving average, which also indicates the potential for growth.

copper futures chart
Copper futures chart

Trading analytics

Copper (HG)   –   buy copper   –   Entry price: 2,4295. Goal: 2,4838. Stop loss: 2,3909.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.