Monthly Archives: July 2015

SILVER: The Fed comments can cause to fall price on the metal to 14,000

Silver shows in recent days rather restrained trend on expectations of publication of the decision on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Or rather, not the decision itself, and the comments that will make the regulator. If he confirms his aggressive attitude and will make it clear that the increase is possible in September, white metal, which does not bring interest income may be under severe pressure. Such expectations are not unfounded, because the US statistics in recent years quite positive (eg, the labor market in April 2014, where the economy creates more than 200,000 jobs per month, above expectations this week came out and data on orders for durable goods 3, 4% versus + 3.2% expected).

Quotations of silver dropped to 6 years minimum. The district-level 14,400 precious metal to form a support. Until she was overcome in part influenced by profit, partly on expectations the publication of important macroeconomic data. But the emergence of new catalysts could provoke her breakthrough that will enhance the activity of “bears“.

silver chart
Silver chart

Trading analytics

Silver (XAG/USD)   –   sell silver   –   Entry price: 14,400. Objective: 14,011. Stop loss: 14,778.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and does not guarantee a result.  

The DOW: the Fed can move markets up

US stock indexes are trying to find the bottom, after the sales of the previous days as the market participant and expected outcomes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be announced tomorrow evening. Today published data on consumer confidence index as calculated by Conference Board. The value of the index was slightly worse than expected (90.9 points vs. 100), but his low reading may become a reason for the Fed to hold off on increasing rates, as consumer spending is now an important factor in GDP growth. Accordingly, the report may become a catalyst for growth.

The Dow Jones futures are ready to test the strength of the important resistance level of 17,500 in the case of overcoming it may be of interest to search for long positions.

dow chart
Dow chart
Trading analytics
The Dow Jones (YM)   –   buy the dow   –   Entry price: 17500. Goal: 17730 or 17870. Stop loss: 17315.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and does not guarantee a result. 

NASDAQ 100: buy in area 4527

US stocks are under pressure as investors ignored the good data on orders for durable goods, and expressed concern about a decrease in the price of raw materials, large-scale sale of shares in China, as well as the drop in the index in Europe.

Orders for durable goods, released today, were better than expected due to the placement of large orders in the aircraft industry. However, the core index (the purification from volatile components) significantly exceeded analysts’ forecasts. The increase amounted to 0.8% compared with the previous month, with a median forecast of 0.4%. The US economy seems to have good starts to the third quarter.

Stock index NASDAQ 100 feels support in the level of 4500. Around this area is, and SMA-200 in the four-hour chart. Deviation from the SMA-50 in the hourly chart has reached the lowest level since June. We believe that at these relatively low levels of the tool is attractive for shopping.

nasdaq 100 chart
Nasdaq 100 chart
Trading analytics
NASDAQ 100 (NQ)   –   buy nasdaq   –   Entry price: level 4527. Objective: levels 4592,85 or 4639,36. Stop loss: 4495.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Review of July 20-24: markets afraid of a strong dollar. Forecast for the week July 27 – July 31

Stock indices finished the working week in the “red.” In many ways, this was due to the negative dynamics of corporate reporting, and fears that the strength of the dollar will start to have a negative impact on the US economy. In addition, the published macroeconomic statistics proved to be quite strong, which increases the likelihood of an early beginning of the cycle of monetary tightening Fed. As a result, NASDAQ (NQ) lost 1,9%, Dow Jones (YM) fell by 2.61%. German DAX30 (FDAX) fell 3.37%. Hong Kong HSI was under moderate pressure amid falling commodity prices and weak statistics from China, down 1.69%.

EUR / USD received a temporary reprieve on news that the Greek parliament adopted the second package of laws on reforms, paving the way for negotiations with the EU for a third aid package. Against this background, the pair managed to gain a foothold in 1.46%.

Precious metals again came under pressure amid growing expectations of tighter monetary policy the US Federal Reserve. Gold has fallen in price by 3.1%, updating earlier in the week for at least 5.5 years. Silver lost 1.36%. Brent crude oil “closed” week below 55.00, having fallen in price on 4,31%. Black Gold “crippled” data on commercial stocks in the US, the general sentiment in the commodities markets, the weak statistics from China, and data on the number of drilling rigs operating in the US showed an increase according to Baker Hughes.

Chart of the week:

brent crude oil chart
Brent crude oil chart

 

Forecast for the week July 27 – July 31
Stock market
The new work week can be exciting for the American indices. US published data on orders for durable goods, a report on consumer confidence, the preliminary GDP data for the 2nd quarter of 2015, as well as the Fed monetary policy. The market is waiting for changes in interest rates at this meeting, but in the comments of officials, he will look for clues confirming the aggressive attitude, showed recently.
And if the confirmation will be received, and the data in terms of growth of the economy reinforce their good figures, benchmarks may continue to weaken. But what is most surprising, and the weak US GDP report could put pressure on the index, because only confirms the hypothesis that the market is exaggerated in the past week, that a strong dollar puts pressure on the US economy. Thus, we can assume that the Dow Jones and Nasdaq will continue to decline, aiming for a return to 17350 and 4477.16, respectively.
Commodity and raw market
Brent crude oil (BRN) remains under pressure. Several factors have on the “black gold” negative impact. Firstly, the market is still under the impression of lifting the sanctions against Iran, which will allow the country to resume the supply of black gold on the world market. This can strengthen the imbalance of supply and demand. Second, the pressure comes from fear of reduction in demand for hydrocarbons. The latest data on commercial stocks in the United States make it clear that even in the traditional peak season of demand (which, incidentally, is nearing completion) from the refinery consumption growth is not observed.
In addition, signs of cooling of the Chinese economy does not add optimism because the country is the largest importer of oil. Overnight, these factors will not disappear, but they were, for the most part “played out” by the market. But new evidence readiness Fed to start raising rates later this year that the regulator can do at a meeting on Wednesday, as well as the positive statistics from the US, it is able to provide support for the dollar. In this case, Brent can aim to reduce the level of 52.60.   

A large block of American statistics, as well as a meeting of the US Federal Reserve may put additional pressure on precious metals. The main condition – strong evidence and proof of the aggressive attitude of the American regulator. All this will cause a strengthening of the dollar, which adversely affects the value of assets denominated in it. In this case, you can consider selling gold (XAU / USD) and silver (XAG / USD) in the breakdown of levels of 1067.00 and 14.370, respectively.

Currency market
GBP / USD in the coming week could make an attempt to recover the district level of 1.5640. But such dynamics will be possible only when published on Tuesday showed the pace of economic growth in the 2nd quarter will reflect the acceleration of growth at least in line with expectations. 

Such dynamics of the indicator could lead to the fact that the representatives of the MPC will continue to speak out as aggressively relative to the market and inflation, as we did at the last meeting. Moreover, the uncertainty on Greece has exhausted itself, and will not have a deterrent effect on them.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and does not guarantee a result.

DAX FUTURES: search for long positions in level 11365

The German stock DAX 30 index under moderate pressure after data on the PMI index in industry and services in France and Germany were much worse than expected. Moreover, the PMI index in the service sector in France has fallen below 50%, which is the border between recession and growth. The value of the index was recorded at 49.6%, while a month earlier it was 51.1%.

Nevertheless, a significant impact on the index could have the situation around Greece during that Markit and conducted a survey, and therefore can be expected to restore business confidence in the next reports.

DAX futures are preparing to test the key support level in the 200-hour moving average, which currently stands at 11365. At these relatively low price levels may be of interest to search for long positions.

dax futures chart
Dax futures chart
Trading analytics

Dax futures (FDAX)   –   buy dax   –   Entry price: level 11365. Goal: 11810. Stop loss: 11125.Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and does not guarantee a result.

GOLD TRADING: US data open the way down

Gold trading despite all attempts to recover and demonstrate strong growth can not. And, most likely, will continue to fall. For such dynamics can push the precious metal intensifying expectations that the Fed will start raising rates in September. Today’s data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits reflected the decline to 255 thousand vs. 280 thousand. Thus, we can assume that the situation in the labor market continues to stabilize. In addition, the positive statistics gives grounds for the growth of the dollar, which makes assets denominated in it less.

From mid-May gold resumed downtrend formation. In the area of 1088.22 level metal to form a support on which prices and began corrective gains. The breakthrough of this mark will boost the “bears“, which will increase the pressure on the yellow metal, aiming it to move to the next barrier 1075.82.

gold chart
Gold chart
Trading analytics
Gold trading (XAU/USD)   –   sell gold   –   Entry price: 1088,22. Goal: 1075,82. Stop loss: 1095,65.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and does not guarantee a result.

COPPER: lower and lower…

Copper remains pressurized. In favor of further reduce red metal show several factors. As one of them are the market sentiment: commodities at this stage is clearly not in demand. In addition, signs of a slowdown of the Chinese economy continued to have a negative impact on the expectations of the consumption of copper.

The area is marked enough level 2.4155 strong support. Provided that this level will be passed, “bears” can be activated, which will lead to an acceleration of the downward trend with the immediate goal at 2.3020, all the more so, in fact, a break of this level will be output from the range in which the quotes were held in two weeks.

copper chart
Copper chart

 Trading analytics

Copper (HG)   –   sell copper   –   Entry price: 2,4155. Goal: 2,3020. Stop loss: 2,5094.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and does not guarantee a result.

SILVER: The pressure on the metal is saved

Recently precious metals remain under pressure. A key factor in this dynamic can be called expectations the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The market to price in the likelihood of a rate hike soon began (the current level of 0 – 0.25%). Silver does not yield interest and, in such circumstances, of course, is less attractive. An additional factor of pressure on the white metal may be published on Wednesday, data for the real estate market on the condition that they will come out above expectations.

The prices are in a downtrend. At the moment they started upward correction. But in the level of 15.125 mentioned resistance. No additional catalysts this barrier is unlikely to be overcome. Therefore, it is likely rebound in prices of this mark and the resumption of the fall.

silver chart
Silver chart
Trading analytics
Silver (XAG/USD)   –   sell silver   –   Entry price: 15,125. Goal: 14,538. Stop loss: 15,604.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

BRENT CRUDE OIL: prices again test 56.50

Brent crude oil decline at the opening of the week, despite the fact that the published in the last two trading sessions data were rather positive. The volume of exports of crude oil from Saudi Arabia in June fell by 802,000 barrels per day to 6.935 million, while in the US the number of rigs working again fell, this time by 6 to 857 pieces.

In recent weeks, the market has poured out a stream of negative news from the slowdown in China and ending with the removal of sanctions on Iran. Not all of them have yet been completely digested, but the reasons for the further reduction of the scale difficult to allocate.

Contracts try the strength of support in the 56.50 second time in the last two trading sessions, but feel there is support and do not dare to go down to 55.00, visited two weeks earlier and where they are very high in demand. We are looking for shopping opportunities at relatively low price levels.

brent crude oil chart
Brent crude oil chart
Trading analytics
Brent crude oil (BRN)   –   buy oil   –   Entry price: 56,80.Goal: 57,77. Stop loss: 56,30.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.