Review of June 3: euro above 1.12. Forecast for Thursday, June 4

By | June 4, 2015

The US dollar tried to recover some of the losses, and the best thing he has turned it into a pair GBP / USD, as the data on business activity in the UK services sector disappointed investors. It sent a pair back below 1.53, but by the evening she returned their losses. EUR / USD also fully lived hopes for conclusion of the negotiations with Greece, with conflicting reports in the media only added fuel to the fire, pushing the pair to 1.1280.

Stock indices showed positive dynamics, but the commodity-commodity assets could not please us. Even though favorable for the growth of Brent data on newly cut commercial energy reserves in underground storage facilities of US asset down to 63.70 dollars per barrel. Precious metals came under pressure on speculation impressive market manipulation in this segment.

Forecast for Thursday, June 4

Stock market
Now that most of the economic data this week has been published, all of the market’s attention will focus on the publication of data on the US labor market. Traditionally, this figure for the levels of employment payrolls (Non-Farm Payrolls) is considered the best leading indicator of the US economy and, therefore, can be used to predict the timing of the first interest rate increase from the Fed. To date, very few people waiting for tightening monetary policy in June, but the chances of a September move up about 50%.

Much will depend on the labor market, housing and inflation. Leading indicators, published in the current moment indicate the probability of weaker data. According to forecasts, the figure should be to increment by 225 thousand. New jobs, and the growth rate of hourly wages – by 0.2%. If both of these indicators will be lower, it can give a new impetus to the growth of the American stock market. From NASDAQ (NQ) can be expected to move to the area of 4580 and from the Dow Jones (YM) – motion to 18220.

Commodity and raw market
Brent is in the spotlight with the approach of the key OPEC meeting, scheduled for June 5th. Pour oil on the fire and the comments of the cartel flowing from the moment of the Sixth International Workshop. Yesterday it became known that the head of the organization Abdullah al-Badri reiterated the emerging balance of supply and demand in the world oil market at the moment that was immediately perceived by the market as a signal to preserve the “status quo” on the Friday meeting in terms of crude oil.

In addition, we should not ignore the fact of lowering forecasts for the global growth of the OECD (1.9% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016), which can mean lower demand for energy. As a result, it is likely that the abundance of rumors and talks that are currently putting pressure on the dynamics of “black gold” will lead to the development of the script “sell the rumor, buy on fact” and provoke a sharp jump in the Brent area of $ 68 per barrel on the announcement of the decision Friday.

Currency market
We could not pass up an impressive leap EUR / USD: the pair managed to add 150 points in one day, and their contribution in addition to “the Greek passion” in all of this has made the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, who during his speech made it clear that the purchase of bonds will be not “all together“, and with the constant analysis of volatility. All this forced the players to leave the European bonds by buying euros.

For the euro is of great importance, as above 1.12 no serious resistance levels up to the mark of 1.15. And the pair could reach this level, if the negotiations with Greece still completed by consensus this week. Thus, it makes sense to put the warrant at the breakdown above current levels to near 1.1460, and if Athens still make concessions, you will be able to collect profits in the coming days.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

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