Review of June 22-26, “the Greek saga”, and whether the final? Forecast for the week June 29 – July 3

By | June 28, 2015

Stock indexes last week again showed unequivocal dynamics. Impact on benchmarks provided comments from the US Federal Reserve, as well as news and rumors of negotiations with Greece and creditors. As a result, US indices ended the five-day week with a symbolic reduction. NASDAQ lost 0,5%, Dow Jones fell by 0.27%. German DAX30 (FDAX) rose by 4.06% on expectations of reaching agreement on the Greek question. Hong Kong HSI ended the week virtually unchanged (-0.09%).

Pair EUR / USD to the end of the week came in the level of 1.1160. At the end of the week she slipped” by 1.6% under the influence of the news on the Greek question.

gold chart
Gold chart

Precious metals finished the week on a background of falling aggressive rhetoric by the Fed Powell, as well as the positive statistics on the real estate market, which only increased expectations of an earlier Fed rate hikes start. Gold has fallen in price by 2.06%. Silver lost 1.87%. Brent crude oil showed mixed trends. At the end of the week “black gold” could show growth of only 0.49%.

Economic data:
Quarterly reporting Nike: profit of $ 0.98 per share, above forecasts of $ 0.83
Eurogroup meeting: the Greek government rejected the proposal to extend the program of assistance to November

Forecast for the week June 29 – July 3
Stock market
US indexes next week will have a lot of reasons for movements. Firstly, it is the Greek question, which can set the tone opening of a new week. If the situation will be resolved in a positive way, that at the moment does not look too likely, Dow Jones could return to the area of ​​18047 level, Nasdaq rise to the level of 4550.0. Later, however, the market will begin to monitor the statistics of the United States. Attention attract data on business activity in the industrial sector, as well as a report on the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector. Strong statistics can create the preconditions for the start of an earlier Fed rate hike, which would moderate pressure on the indices, and these levels may be a good point to enter into short-term sales.
German DAX30 remains palpable influence of “Greek saga”. In fact, this weekend the last chance to reach an agreement. Greece rejected proposals to extend the assistance program until November, and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appointed on July 5 for a referendum on the decision: whether to accept offers of lenders to continue the policy of austerity. Such statements cast doubt on the fact of reaching an agreement at a meeting on 27 June. In this case, the probability is high that on June 30 Athens will not be able to pay the IMF 1.6 billion euros. Consequently, the benchmark may again be under pressure to return to a level of 10,940.
And a few words about perspective, in our opinion, shares. Nike company released the financial report, which has been very strong. Last quarter, net income was $ 865 million, or $ 0.98 per share, exceeding the median forecast of $ 0.83. Revenue grew by 4.8% – to $ 7.78 billion. Shares of Nike at this stage are attractive from a fundamental point of view. Against this background, an asset could be quite interesting for shopping, especially for short-term pullback down. Read more about the prospects and potential Nike shares available for investment within the framework of the idea of ​​“Nike – jump up”.
Commodity and raw market
Prices for Brent crude oil came under pressure amid concerns about the outcome of negotiations on the Greek question, and data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) on the growth stocks of gasoline fuel. New week, the black gold is likely to begin gap. And then, where will the quotes will depend on whether Greece and creditors to reach an agreement. 
If a compromise is found, quotes Brent may try to return to the area level of 65.20 dollars per barrel, a break of which would open the way up to 66.70. However, there are a number of factors, which may put pressure on oil prices. In particular, the lifting of sanctions against Iran, which will increase the supply of an asset in the global market, increasing imbalance. Also, do not forget about the report EIA. To the oil on his part was supported just need a reduction of oil and gasoline fuel, and the production volumes in the US, amid rising refinery utilization. Thus, at this stage there are no obvious prerequisites for long-term growth or decline of quotations Brent. And it suggests the continued relevance of the fluctuation range of 60 – 70 per barrel.
Currency market
Once again the focus will be on the pair EUR / USD. For her, the beginning of the week can be very interesting, because the weekend will be another meeting of Greece and creditors. Date when the country has to pay the next tranche of the IMF is getting closer. If no agreement is reached, the consequences can be negative not only for Athens, but for the entire European and, as a consequence, the world economy. 
It is understood and EU finance ministers. Therefore, the probability of an agreement “at the last moment” saved. And if during the Saturday and Sunday will go good news at the beginning of the new trading week, EUR / USD could test the May high – 1.1470. Otherwise, it is likely falling to 1.0860. A similar trend can demonstrate and the pair GBP / USD, are mounted on the positive news from the negotiations and losing position in the absence of agreements. 
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.
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