Review of June 15-19, “the Greek saga” could cause a storm. Forecast for the week for June 22 – on June 26

By | June 21, 2015

Stock indices last week showed unequivocal dynamics. American NASDAQ rose by 1.09%, but the Dow Jones showed a symbolic strengthening of 0.14%. Support benchmarks gained against the background of a softer mood Fed than expected. German DAX30 (FDAX) lost 1.19%, remaining under pressure from the unresolved problems in Greece. Hong Kong HSI also ends the week with a loss of 1.46% in response to the worldwide excitement “Greek question”.

The pair GBP / USD under the influence of the weakening dollar, as well as minutes of the last meeting of the MPC (in which it was noted that inflation will rise significantly by the end of 2015) for the week failed to demonstrate an increase of 2.07%, noting the high at 1.5930.

gbp/usd chart
GBP/USD chart

Precious metals finished the week on a soft growth of the US Federal Reserve and the rhetoric of risk aversion. Gold has appreciated by 1.57%. Silver added 0.82%. Brent crude oil reached a level of 65.45 dollars per barrel under the influence of the widespread weakening of the dollar, but by the end of the week all lost earnings. As a result, the asset showed a drop of 2.8%.


Forecast for the week for June 22 – on June 26
Stock market
This week the stock markets may storm, because the situation with Greece remains unresolved, and the market, in fact, can not decide how to respond to the potential default of Greece. Considering that on Friday, the US benchmark against this backdrop that showed a fall, it is possible that it will continue on Monday, when the next meeting will be held on the “Greek question”. Although in the future it is possible that the Dow Jones and Nasdaq resumed growth, while continuing to win back enough aggressive attitude of the American regulator. Due to the planned publication of reports attention is paid to data on orders for durable goods, a weekly report on the labor market and data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Even the slightest hint that the US economy is recovering fast enough, the Fed began to raise rates at the end of the third – the beginning of the fourth quarter may return optimistic. And it will be able to push the Dow Jones to return to the area of ​​18047 level and, further, to 18125 in the event of a breakthrough. Nasdaq may try to return once again to the upper limit established range 4416.50 – 4550.0.
German DAX30 remains palpable influence of “Greek saga.” This factor continues to have on the benchmark pressure. The coming week will be no exception, since Monday is scheduled the next meeting, but at the level of Heads of State and Government. In fact, this week will be the last, when an agreement can be reached. June 30 Athens must pay to the IMF and 1.6 billion euros on the same day the program ends economic aid. Considering that progress in the negotiation process there, the market is starting to prepare not only for the country’s default, but also to the exit from the eurozone. In addition, there is the chance of introducing capital controls. And that factor could have a significant pressure on the benchmark. In March – April 2013, when these events unfolded in Cyprus, FDAX lost 7.3%. Therefore, it is possible to decrease the primary purpose of the benchmark in the level of 10600. Although, if the situation will still be resolved in a positive manner, the index may return fairly quickly to the level of 11800. Thus, it is necessary to “keep finger on the pulse”.
“The Greek saga” does not take place, and by the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HSI), which could provoke a short-term decline in the level of 26000. However, once this factor has exhausted itself, the benchmark has a chance to resume growth. The fact that the slowdown of the Chinese economy provokes People’s Bank of China to provide an enabling policy. It is possible that the regulator will soon go on further easing, which may contribute to a fairly sharp reversal benchmark up with the immediate goal to 27050. The probability of such a step will only intensify if published next week data on business activity in the industrial sector in China will be worse than expected, signaling a continued downturn in the industry.
Commodity and raw market
Prices for Brent crude oil at the end of the week came under pressure amid forecasts of shale oil producers, who expect growth in production in the current year, despite the decline in investment and the number of working rigs (the latest data from Baker Hughes, it fell again to 857 by 859 the previous week). It is also a negative factor for the black gold steel comments Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia.
In the light of the upcoming week will acquire special significance data on commercial stocks in the US, refineries and loading a change in production for the week. After the forecasts of producers “slate” only decline in expectations is not enough to support the “black gold”. To quote again rushed to the upper boundary of the range of the medium-term will require evidence of actual reductions. In addition, a negative factor for Brent is the Iranian issue. If the sanctions by the end of June the country will be lifted, Iran will start delivery that will increase the imbalance of supply and demand. Against this background, it is possible movement of quotations of black gold in the area of ​​the lower limit of the established range – per barrel.
Currency market
In light of the events in Greece, special attention should be paid to the pair EUR / USD, which last week crept close enough to the May peak. The fundamental objective reasons for the growth of the euro there. If the “Greek problem” is solved, the couple can start to decline quite active primary target at 1.1100. The pressure on the couple can only increase if the data on business activity in the industrial and service sectors and the euro zone countries included in its composition, as well as a report on the index of economic expectations in Germany by IFO will be weaker than expected. 
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.
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