Monthly Archives: June 2015

RUSSELL 2000 index tries to find the bottom

Russell 2000 Stock Index (TF) is trying to find the bottom as investors try to divide the Greek crisis and its potential impact on small businesses in the US, focused on the domestic market. Today’s data on consumer confidence from the Conference Board were much better than expected. The value of the index was 101.4 points versus 97.1, and signaled a possible increase in consumer spending in the second quarter.

The Russell 2000 Index is a market leader in the United States, as listed near the 50-day moving average, while the S & P 500, Dow and NASDAQ were fixed below, and the first two have touched the 200-day moving average. In the area of 1244 he felt strong support and may be of interest to search for long positions.

russell 2000 chart
Russell 2000 chart
Trading analytics
Russell 2000 (TF)   –  buy russell 2000  –  Entry price: 1254. Goal: 1269 or 1278. Stop loss: 1241.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Bitcoins: Greece pushes up cryptocurrency

Bitcoins slowly but fairly steadily rising against the dollar. A key factor appears to support cryptocurrency situation in Greece. It was learned that the country has suspended the work of banks and introduced capital controls to prevent the collapse of the financial system. If we recall that in 2013, when the banking system was paralyzed Cyprus, Bitcoin has shown steady growth, something similar can be expected at this stage, as investors begin to look for an alternative to cash. In addition, it was reported that the bitcoin exchange BTC.sx launched a new service Magnr, providing savings accounts in the first Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency continue to spread and take on new functions.

The district level is 254.24 resistance, which inhibit the growth of Bitcoins in April this year. Therefore, in the event of a break above this mark the “bulls” can be activated explicitly. If there is sufficient catalyst may be the immediate goal of the March high at 294.32.

bitcoin chart
Bitcoin chart
Trading analytics
Bitcoins (BTC)   –   buy bitcoins  –   Entry price: 254,55. Goal: 294,32. Stop loss: 230,20.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Review of June 22-26, “the Greek saga”, and whether the final? Forecast for the week June 29 – July 3

Stock indexes last week again showed unequivocal dynamics. Impact on benchmarks provided comments from the US Federal Reserve, as well as news and rumors of negotiations with Greece and creditors. As a result, US indices ended the five-day week with a symbolic reduction. NASDAQ lost 0,5%, Dow Jones fell by 0.27%. German DAX30 (FDAX) rose by 4.06% on expectations of reaching agreement on the Greek question. Hong Kong HSI ended the week virtually unchanged (-0.09%).

Pair EUR / USD to the end of the week came in the level of 1.1160. At the end of the week she slipped” by 1.6% under the influence of the news on the Greek question.

gold chart
Gold chart

Precious metals finished the week on a background of falling aggressive rhetoric by the Fed Powell, as well as the positive statistics on the real estate market, which only increased expectations of an earlier Fed rate hikes start. Gold has fallen in price by 2.06%. Silver lost 1.87%. Brent crude oil showed mixed trends. At the end of the week “black gold” could show growth of only 0.49%.

Economic data:
Quarterly reporting Nike: profit of $ 0.98 per share, above forecasts of $ 0.83
Eurogroup meeting: the Greek government rejected the proposal to extend the program of assistance to November

Forecast for the week June 29 – July 3
Stock market
US indexes next week will have a lot of reasons for movements. Firstly, it is the Greek question, which can set the tone opening of a new week. If the situation will be resolved in a positive way, that at the moment does not look too likely, Dow Jones could return to the area of ​​18047 level, Nasdaq rise to the level of 4550.0. Later, however, the market will begin to monitor the statistics of the United States. Attention attract data on business activity in the industrial sector, as well as a report on the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector. Strong statistics can create the preconditions for the start of an earlier Fed rate hike, which would moderate pressure on the indices, and these levels may be a good point to enter into short-term sales.
German DAX30 remains palpable influence of “Greek saga”. In fact, this weekend the last chance to reach an agreement. Greece rejected proposals to extend the assistance program until November, and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appointed on July 5 for a referendum on the decision: whether to accept offers of lenders to continue the policy of austerity. Such statements cast doubt on the fact of reaching an agreement at a meeting on 27 June. In this case, the probability is high that on June 30 Athens will not be able to pay the IMF 1.6 billion euros. Consequently, the benchmark may again be under pressure to return to a level of 10,940.
And a few words about perspective, in our opinion, shares. Nike company released the financial report, which has been very strong. Last quarter, net income was $ 865 million, or $ 0.98 per share, exceeding the median forecast of $ 0.83. Revenue grew by 4.8% – to $ 7.78 billion. Shares of Nike at this stage are attractive from a fundamental point of view. Against this background, an asset could be quite interesting for shopping, especially for short-term pullback down. Read more about the prospects and potential Nike shares available for investment within the framework of the idea of ​​“Nike – jump up”.
Commodity and raw market
Prices for Brent crude oil came under pressure amid concerns about the outcome of negotiations on the Greek question, and data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) on the growth stocks of gasoline fuel. New week, the black gold is likely to begin gap. And then, where will the quotes will depend on whether Greece and creditors to reach an agreement. 
If a compromise is found, quotes Brent may try to return to the area level of 65.20 dollars per barrel, a break of which would open the way up to 66.70. However, there are a number of factors, which may put pressure on oil prices. In particular, the lifting of sanctions against Iran, which will increase the supply of an asset in the global market, increasing imbalance. Also, do not forget about the report EIA. To the oil on his part was supported just need a reduction of oil and gasoline fuel, and the production volumes in the US, amid rising refinery utilization. Thus, at this stage there are no obvious prerequisites for long-term growth or decline of quotations Brent. And it suggests the continued relevance of the fluctuation range of 60 – 70 per barrel.
Currency market
Once again the focus will be on the pair EUR / USD. For her, the beginning of the week can be very interesting, because the weekend will be another meeting of Greece and creditors. Date when the country has to pay the next tranche of the IMF is getting closer. If no agreement is reached, the consequences can be negative not only for Athens, but for the entire European and, as a consequence, the world economy. 
It is understood and EU finance ministers. Therefore, the probability of an agreement “at the last moment” saved. And if during the Saturday and Sunday will go good news at the beginning of the new trading week, EUR / USD could test the May high – 1.1470. Otherwise, it is likely falling to 1.0860. A similar trend can demonstrate and the pair GBP / USD, are mounted on the positive news from the negotiations and losing position in the absence of agreements. 
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

NASDAQ futures: Greek drama as a reason for shopping?

Futures on US stock indexes are adjusted downwards after rising in the previous two weeks as investors are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting on Greece. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday that the talks will be decisive.

Nevertheless, the government Tsipras this week signal a willingness to meet creditors, and those, in turn, noted that the new proposals could become a breeding ground for substantive negotiations. We believe that the issue will be resolved according to tradition at the last moment and stock markets return to growth.

Futures on NASDAQ 100 Index is currently trading below the 200-hour moving average, and at such relatively low levels may be of interest for long positions.

nasdaq 100 chart
Nasdaq 100 chart
Trading analytics
NASDAQ 100 (NQ)   –   buy nasdaq   –   Entry price: 4495-4500. Goal: 4550. Stop loss: 4483.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Natural gas: the weather speculation is replaced by report

The cost of natural gas may show growth in anticipation of the publication of the EIA report on changes in stocks of gas in the United States, the supply and demand over the past week. Speculation weather factors holding back until the quotations of the asset, as the players are concerned that the favorable weather can reduce gas consumption by energy companies, which today are the main consumers of the resource.

However, gas price remain at low levels, leaving the attractiveness of the transition generation from coal to gas. As a result, demand will persist, that will limit the drawdown price.

The price of natural gas fluctuates from June 19 $ 2.73 – 2.83. Exiting the trading range will determine the movement in the coming days. At the same time, based on the oscillators stored prerequisites for upward movement.

natural gas chart
Natural gas chart
Trading analytics

Natural gas (NG)   –   buy natural gas   –   Entry price: the overcoming Up 2,84. Goal: 2,92. Stop loss: 2,77.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

SILVER: pressure may have data from the US

Silver is nominated in dollars. Therefore, any reasons for the growth of the US currency precious metal takes quite painful. In addition, at this stage, white metal responds to the expectations of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. If released today data on the rate of growth of the US economy in the 1st quarter will be revised at least slightly upward (recall that there was a decline of 0.7% in the quarterly ratio), it will only strengthen expectations that the Fed may be willing to raise rates at the end of the third quarter of 2015. All the more so among the regulator there are clear supporters of such a step. Yesterday, Powell said that the conditions for the start of rate increases are likely to be reached in September, and he expects further increase in interest rates in December.

In the area of 15.720 level marked sufficiently strong support that with the April 2015 inhibits the fall. When approaching this barrier traders show caution because no additional catalyst is not easy to pass it. But as soon as he is overcome, activated the “bears” and the price moves towards the lows marked in March of this year.

silver chart
Silver chart
 Trading analytics
Silver (XAG/USD)   –   sell silver   –   Entry price: 15,700. Purpose: 15,370. Stop loss: 16,040.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

GOLD futures: Greece confused all plans

Gold futures, after a brief period of growth, caused by the aggressive tone of comments is not enough US Federal Reserve, as well as the risk aversion due to the uncertainty of the situation in Greece resumed its decline. Given that Greece proposed extension of aid programs and the country took it, repositioning in favor of safer assets may cease. And it will not benefit the yellow metal.

In addition, later today will be published data on orders for durable goods in the United States. If the report will be strong enough, the market can once again believe that the US Federal Reserve is already at the September meeting will be ready to consider the possibility of a rate hike. By pushing a number of factors: the stabilization of the labor market, stronger-than-expected data on sales of existing homes (5.35 million vs. 5.26 million), signaling the continuing recovery in the property market.

In the area of gold 1180.00 level to form a support. The breakthrough of this mark will boost the “bears”, which will increase the pressure on the yellow metal, aiming it to move to the next barrier 1171.40.

gold futures chart
Gold futures chart
 Trading analytics
Gold futures (XAU/USD)   –   sell gold   –   Entry price: 1179,90. Goal: 1171,40. Stop loss: 1187,00.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Review of June 15-19, “the Greek saga” could cause a storm. Forecast for the week for June 22 – on June 26

Stock indices last week showed unequivocal dynamics. American NASDAQ rose by 1.09%, but the Dow Jones showed a symbolic strengthening of 0.14%. Support benchmarks gained against the background of a softer mood Fed than expected. German DAX30 (FDAX) lost 1.19%, remaining under pressure from the unresolved problems in Greece. Hong Kong HSI also ends the week with a loss of 1.46% in response to the worldwide excitement “Greek question”.

The pair GBP / USD under the influence of the weakening dollar, as well as minutes of the last meeting of the MPC (in which it was noted that inflation will rise significantly by the end of 2015) for the week failed to demonstrate an increase of 2.07%, noting the high at 1.5930.

gbp/usd chart
GBP/USD chart

Precious metals finished the week on a soft growth of the US Federal Reserve and the rhetoric of risk aversion. Gold has appreciated by 1.57%. Silver added 0.82%. Brent crude oil reached a level of 65.45 dollars per barrel under the influence of the widespread weakening of the dollar, but by the end of the week all lost earnings. As a result, the asset showed a drop of 2.8%.

 

Forecast for the week for June 22 – on June 26
Stock market
This week the stock markets may storm, because the situation with Greece remains unresolved, and the market, in fact, can not decide how to respond to the potential default of Greece. Considering that on Friday, the US benchmark against this backdrop that showed a fall, it is possible that it will continue on Monday, when the next meeting will be held on the “Greek question”. Although in the future it is possible that the Dow Jones and Nasdaq resumed growth, while continuing to win back enough aggressive attitude of the American regulator. Due to the planned publication of reports attention is paid to data on orders for durable goods, a weekly report on the labor market and data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Even the slightest hint that the US economy is recovering fast enough, the Fed began to raise rates at the end of the third – the beginning of the fourth quarter may return optimistic. And it will be able to push the Dow Jones to return to the area of ​​18047 level and, further, to 18125 in the event of a breakthrough. Nasdaq may try to return once again to the upper limit established range 4416.50 – 4550.0.
German DAX30 remains palpable influence of “Greek saga.” This factor continues to have on the benchmark pressure. The coming week will be no exception, since Monday is scheduled the next meeting, but at the level of Heads of State and Government. In fact, this week will be the last, when an agreement can be reached. June 30 Athens must pay to the IMF and 1.6 billion euros on the same day the program ends economic aid. Considering that progress in the negotiation process there, the market is starting to prepare not only for the country’s default, but also to the exit from the eurozone. In addition, there is the chance of introducing capital controls. And that factor could have a significant pressure on the benchmark. In March – April 2013, when these events unfolded in Cyprus, FDAX lost 7.3%. Therefore, it is possible to decrease the primary purpose of the benchmark in the level of 10600. Although, if the situation will still be resolved in a positive manner, the index may return fairly quickly to the level of 11800. Thus, it is necessary to “keep finger on the pulse”.
“The Greek saga” does not take place, and by the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HSI), which could provoke a short-term decline in the level of 26000. However, once this factor has exhausted itself, the benchmark has a chance to resume growth. The fact that the slowdown of the Chinese economy provokes People’s Bank of China to provide an enabling policy. It is possible that the regulator will soon go on further easing, which may contribute to a fairly sharp reversal benchmark up with the immediate goal to 27050. The probability of such a step will only intensify if published next week data on business activity in the industrial sector in China will be worse than expected, signaling a continued downturn in the industry.
Commodity and raw market
Prices for Brent crude oil at the end of the week came under pressure amid forecasts of shale oil producers, who expect growth in production in the current year, despite the decline in investment and the number of working rigs (the latest data from Baker Hughes, it fell again to 857 by 859 the previous week). It is also a negative factor for the black gold steel comments Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia.
In the light of the upcoming week will acquire special significance data on commercial stocks in the US, refineries and loading a change in production for the week. After the forecasts of producers “slate” only decline in expectations is not enough to support the “black gold”. To quote again rushed to the upper boundary of the range of the medium-term will require evidence of actual reductions. In addition, a negative factor for Brent is the Iranian issue. If the sanctions by the end of June the country will be lifted, Iran will start delivery that will increase the imbalance of supply and demand. Against this background, it is possible movement of quotations of black gold in the area of ​​the lower limit of the established range – per barrel.
Currency market
In light of the events in Greece, special attention should be paid to the pair EUR / USD, which last week crept close enough to the May peak. The fundamental objective reasons for the growth of the euro there. If the “Greek problem” is solved, the couple can start to decline quite active primary target at 1.1100. The pressure on the couple can only increase if the data on business activity in the industrial and service sectors and the euro zone countries included in its composition, as well as a report on the index of economic expectations in Germany by IFO will be weaker than expected. 
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

COPPER futures: China continues to put pressure on prices

Copper futures remains pressurized. The benefit of further reducing suggest several factors. In particular, one of them is the revision of the forecast for a fall in the rate of global economic growth in 2015 from the World Bank (up to 2.8% from 3.0%). Furthermore, it remains stable enough and the situation in China. The fall in GDP in Q1 to 7% from 7.3%, not likely to last as indicated by the leading indicators. A Celestial Empire, is known to be a major consumer of the red metal.

The area was marked 2.60 level is strong enough to support and the fact that prices were able to overcome this barrier already gives reason to expect further decline. But on the way down there is another intermediate level of 2.5419, which at the time could contain drop. Therefore, short positions should be considered after the break.

copper chart
Copper chart
 Trading analytics
Copper futures (HG)   –    sell copper  –   Entry price: 2,5400. Goal: 2,4568. Stop loss: 2,6000. 
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained. 

Bitcoins: Greece bad, well cryptocurrency

Bitcoins is back on the growth path. On the one hand, support cryptocurrency worsened sentiment on the US dollar. On the other, cryptocurrency becoming more common where it is not prohibited: in particular, is now in the US you can buy tickets to more than 900 movie theaters, paying Bitcoins. In addition, they say that even the Central Bank is ready to partially recognize cryptocurrency. In favor of continued growth Bitcoins evidenced by the fact that investors are in a situation of uncertainty begin to look for alternatives to cash. “The Greek saga” just might trigger demand for cryptocurrency as it was in 2013, when the banking system in Cyprus was in a state of paralysis. Therefore, the longer the problems of Greece are not addressed, the more likely the growth of the Bitcoins.

The district level is 254.24 resistance, which inhibit the growth of Bitcoins in April this year. Therefore, in the event of a break above this mark the “bulls” can be activated explicitly. If there is sufficient catalyst may be the immediate goal of the March high at 294.32.

bitcoin chart
Bitcoin chart
 Trading analytics
Bitcoin   –   buy bitcoins   –   Entry price: 255,00. Goal: 294.32. Stop loss: 230,20.
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.