Monthly Archives: May 2015

Review of May 25-29: the dollar again in the favourites. The forecast for June 1 – on June 5

Last week share indexes appeared under pressure. Their most part finished week “in the red”. The least strong falling was shown by the American NASDAQ (-0,25%). Dow Jones fell in price for 1,11%. In many respects it was caused by strengthening of dollar in response to quite aggressive spirit of the head of U.S. Fed which declared earlier that increase of a rate will happen until the end of the year and it is necessary to reconcile to it. And even that fact that and really was reconsidered by GDP of the USA on decrease (-0,7% against preliminary 0,2%) couldn’t change a situation essentially. German of DAX 30 (FDAX) decreased by 3,33% against fears of that Greece won’t manage to agree with creditors. The Hong Kong HSI lost 4,0%, being corrected from strong resistance.

Precious metals in the week showed falling under the influence of rising dollar, which makes assets denominated in it less expensive. Gold fell by 1.29%. Silver lost 2.11%. Brent crude oil dropped to the monthly minimum (61.24), but was able to recover losses and finished the week unchanged.

The forecast for June 1 – on June 5
Stock market
Next week the market will be particularly closely monitor the US reports. They will be published data on the index of business activity in the industrial and service sectors, data on employment in the private sector. Of course, the key will report data on non-farm payrolls. In its latest comments the head of the Fed has signaled that the regulator clearly set to raise rates before the end of the year and the market it is necessary to come to terms with. The only question is the timing. And it will depend on incoming macroeconomic statistics. Thus, even the slightest hint that the US economy is showing strong recovery creates new jobs and the growth of hourly wages may trigger an acceleration of inflation, it may be enough for the market to believe in the possibility of the beginning of the cycle increase in September – October 2015 year. Against this background, stocks may continue downward correction. Dow Jones may revert to the district level to around 17692. Nasdaq 4416.50.
German DAX30 recently demonstrated quite restrained dynamics. Benchmarks can not find catalysts for renewed growth. However, recent statements by European Central Bank officials that they plan to slightly adjust the pace of asset purchases during the summer months, can still provide support for the index. Especially because next week a regular meeting of the European Central Bank monetary policy and a press conference by Mario Draghi. FDAX can also support and resolution of the “Greek problem”. Against the backdrop of these factors combined can expect an increase with the primary aim in the level of 11980.
The Hang Seng (HSI) index appeared under pressure in recent days. Benchark can’t pass mark 28605 in any way. Nevertheless, at the beginning of a week it has chances to resume growth with primary purpose at the level of 27970. But it will be possible only provided that data on business activity in industrial sector of China again will appear lower than a level 50,0 that will testify to weakness of one of key sectors of economy and to give the grounds to wait that National Bank of China will continue to undertake the additional stimulating measures. Besides, last week there were data that the State Council of China approved new exchange “sheaf” for stock trade between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Any details of rather this project can give to a benchmark additional support. The matter is that “sheaf” will give ample opportunities for investors who want to get access to stock market, the second for the sizes, in the world that can significantly increase a capital stream to China.
Commodity and raw market 
The coming week could be quite important for the black gold. June 5 will be another meeting of OPEC. The probability that the cartel revised down production quotas, is practically zero. Most likely, the cartel will continue to adhere to its policy of “squeezing” the market shale projects. Because of recent developments in favor of such an outcome shows the Iraqi declaration that he plans to bring the diurnal supply oil to the world market to a record 3.75 million barrels of oil. in June. In general, such an outcome has actually been included in the quote of the asset and, even if Brent crude oil would be under pressure, it is unlikely to be sustained. Therefore, even assuming that the oil quotes drop below $ 60 a barrel, quickly they will return to the “usual” range of 60 – 70 dollars set earlier. In order to actively reduce the price of oil is not the fundamental reason is not sufficient.
Commercial inventories in the United States on the basis of the previous week fell by 2.7 million barrels to 482.2 million, which was the fourth decline in a row. Refineries increased their consumption of raw materials by 237 thousand barrels per day to 16.5 million. This demonstrates the continued seasonal demand. Despite the fact that the previous week Baker Hughes data on the number of operating drilling rigs signaled the termination of the folding slate of projects, the latest report once again reflected the decline in their numbers. By the current moment the number of nearly 58% lower than a year earlier. Thus, you can still expect that production in the US is about to begin to fall and this may have additional support to oil. In view of these factors, the existing range of fluctuations of the best looks.
Currency market
Forthcoming week Great Britain will publish data on business activity in industrial and construction sectors and a services sector. Also will take place next MRS meetings on monetary policy. Most likely, impact on the British currency influence will be had by the PMI index as from the British regulator until the end of the year don’t wait for tightening of monetary policy. And, if reports continue to signal that the economy can continue to show so modest growth, as in 1 quarter (0,3%), that, together with April data on consumer inflation (-0,1%), they will only strengthen similar moods. And on this background of GBP/USD steam can continue decrease to the region of level 1,5130.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Gold index may grow on US GDP data

Gold index has chances to retreat from two-week lows to which it slipped against the background of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US. Today, attention will be attracted to publish data on US GDP. And no matter what it is the second reading of the index. The fact that the expected revision numbers downward.

According to preliminary data, the growth in the 1st quarter was only 0.2% and it was due to the increase the volume of stocks in warehouses. Now it is expected that the numbers will be at the level of -0.8%. And it is quite possible, since the last inventory data showed a decrease in this indicator. It is due to this we are waiting for the revision downward. The weak figures may reduce demand for the dollar, and this can take advantage of assets denominated in it, showing growth.

gold chart
Gold chart
Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1   1180,30
Support 2   1175,07
Current price:   1189,81
Resistance 1    1190,60
Resistance 2    1200,00

Gold index (XAU/USD)   –   buy gold   –   Buy the breakdown level of 1190.60. The purpose of 1199.80. Stop-Loss = 1180,30

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

TESLA stock: Favourites for the future

Tesla stock (TSLA) can get additional support by the inclusion of Tesla company in an extensive review of the automotive industry by Goldman Sachs.

In a monumental study of Goldman Sachs estimates the future of the automotive industry and is considering Tesla as one of the leading companies of the future, including through a business – model of the company. Consideration of Tesla in this perspective, the company adds appeal and points to its acceptance by the investment community.

tesla stock chart
Tesla stock chart

 Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1   241,01
Support 2   245,27
Current price:   245,80
Resistance 1    249,01
Resistance 2    251,55

Tesla stock (TSLA)   –   buy tesla   –   We buy from the level of 243.0. The goal – 249.0. Stop-Loss-240,0

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

DAX ındex: Greece will not stop growth

The German DAX 30 index is under as the situation around Greece continues to heat up. Most problematic euro zone debtor will pay about 1.6 billion IMF in June, but the country declares lack of funds. The government Ciparas notes that the maximum concessions made to creditors and is now waiting for steps on their part. Against this background, quotes ready to check the strength of support in 11630. However, a number of factors that support the growth of the index remains relevant.

The European Central Bank is implementing a program of quantitative easing, and even plans to increase the volume of purchases in June, business optimism in Germany is recovering and the euro depreciates. They largely outweigh the risks for German companies, which may arise due to the exit of Greece from the eurozone. We believe that close to important technical support levels DAX ındex may be of interest to search for long positions.

dax index chart
Dax index chart

 Trading analytics  

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    11630
Support 2   11420
Current price:   11714
Resistance 1    11900
Resistance 2    12050

DAX 30 index (FDAX)   –  buy dax ındex   –   Purchases, if the quotes will move up after testing support 11630. The purpose – 12050. Stop-Loss = 11420
  
Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Review of May 18-22, new hopes stock market. Forecast for the week 25 – 29 May

Stock markets were able to resume growth. Most of finance completed a week in “green“. The main factor of support for the index once again confirmed that the Fed will not rush to increase rates, and the European Central Bank may even expand the program of asset purchases. But the US indices are in the area and highs, which hinders their growth. As a result, NASDAQ grew by only 0.82%, while the Dow Jones ended the week virtually unchanged. The German DAX 30 (FDAX) rose by 3.17%. Hong Kong HSI added 1.44% in the hope of further stimulus measures after the Chinese data reflect that the manufacturing sector is still in the zone of recession.

EUR / USD finished the week with losses of 3.8%, down to the level of 1.1011. No fundamental reasons for the growth of the euro. Published macroeconomic are mixed statistics, Greece’s problems are still not solved and the European Central Bank continues the program of quantitative easing.

Precious metals in the week showed a fall, despite the fact that the head of the US Federal Reserve signaled that the rate is unlikely to increase before the end of 2015. Gold fell by 1.47%. Silver lost 2.29%. Brent crude oil fell by 2.08%.

eur usd chart
EUR USD chart

Forecast for the week 25 – 29 May

Stock market
This week the market is waiting for a lot of interesting reports that are of particular importance, especially since Janet Yellen has once again confirmed the possibility of the Fed rate increase later this year provided that the US economic indicators improve. Attention should be paid to data on orders for durable goods, a report on consumer confidence from the Conference Board, as well as an updated report on the pace of US economic growth in the 1st quarter. Even the slightest sign of weakness of the US economy could strengthen expectations that before December monetary policy tightening can be expected. But US finances are near the maxima and to continue to grow, they will need significant catalysts, for example, a stronger decrease in the revision of Q1 GDP than expected. Therefore, the US indices still with a fairly high degree of probability can develop a downward correction. Dow Jones may revert to the level 18067. Nasdaq to the level 4477.0.

Talks on the Greek question again deadlocked. On Friday, they were suspended without any significant progress. A time in Athens is running out. The following payments of $ 1.5 billion coming in June. And it means that Greece may have to make concessions. Signs that the situation will still be resolved could support the German index DAX30. The result may be an growth of to ​​level 11980 and further to 12220. Moreover, the representatives of the European Central Bank made it clear that in the month or two the volume of the quantitative easing program may be increased, and Mario Draghi said on Friday that the reforms increase economic growth and its sustainability.

Market of raw materials
Brent crude oil continues to be kept within the range of 64.00 – 69.60, tending to its bottom. Most likely, a significant change in the situation did not happen in the coming week as the main factors that influence the dynamics of the black gold negate each other. As before, act to support asset standby reductions in production in the United States. Especially because in the US there has been a downward trend in the volume of commercial stocks (for three weeks in a row fixed drop indicator), and increasing refinery processing. And continuation of this trend could push up the quotations. But fears that at the June summit of OPEC, the cartel would not cut production quotas will not allow quotes black gold to show growth above the level of 69.60. Also, do not forget that the breakthrough quotations above $ 70 a barrel and hold above that barrier for a long time can lead to the unfolding of dormant projects on shale oil. Such concerns may increase as the number of working oil rigs according to Baker Hughes for the week fell by only on 1. It is not currently existing range of fluctuations of the best looks.

Despite the fact that gold is fails to develop strong growth, but there are chances of such dynamics. Pretty much precious metal reacts to the expectations of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. Last comments the head of the Federal Reserve, as well as macroeconomic data, signaling that the US recovery is not fast enough to ensure that the regulator could go for a rate hike in the near future may become a catalyst for growth. Suffice it to data on orders for durable goods, consumer confidence and revised Q1 GDP came out worse than expected, the precious metal to renewed movement of level to ​​1213.97 level with a further target of level to 1225.55 dollars per troy ounce.

Currency market
This week the Bank of Canada will announce a decision on monetary policy. If the regulator will keep rates unchanged, will not make significant changes in the accompanying statement, hinting at a possible easing of monetary policy (which is still not possible, because the price pressure is reduced), and will not see new risks for the economy and the price of oil will not fall below the level of $ 60, the Canadian dollar could demonstrate the growth in relation to its US counterpart. Moreover, at this stage, temporarily lost USD main supporting factor in expectations of rate hikes already at the June meeting. Against this background, does not rule out a return pair USD / CAD at 1.1920 support area with a further target at 1.1800 in case of breach.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Brent Crude Oil prices are not enough reasons for growth

Brent crude oil prices decline after the resistance in the region reached 67 dollars per barrel. Market participants are in no hurry to take a new position at a relatively high price levels in anticipation of the release of data on the drilling rigs from Baker Hughes. They are scheduled for tonight.

In recent weeks, the rate of decline in drilling volumes have dropped significantly, and traders believe that the market in most of the projects are gone, who can not work at a cost below $ 70 a barrel. If the report shows that the number of operating units was reduced by less than 20 points, this thesis will receive an additional confirmation. Accordingly, the upper limit of the established in the last week trading range, where prices are now, contracts may come under pressure, and interesting for sales.

brent crude oil chart
Brent crude oil chart

 Trading analytics  

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    65,10
Support 2    63,90
Current price:   66,09
Resistance 1    66,80
Resistance 2    67,70

Brent crude oil (BRN)  –   sell oil –   Sell at 66.15. Goal – 65.15. Stop-Loss = 67,00

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

NASDAQ futures: decline may be a reason for shopping

Futures on the US stock index NASDAQ 100 are adjusted after the massive growth in the previous week on expectations that the Fed will not rush to raise interest rates because some weakening macroeconomic statistics. Published on Wednesday, May 20 minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve confirmed these expectations. However, after testing the resistance index area 4532 is adjusted downward.

Today (14.00 GMT) is scheduled to publish data on sales volumes in the secondary real estate market, which can support investors, as activity in the sector is at a high level for the post-crisis time, and should be an important driver of GDP growth in the coming quarters. We are looking for shopping opportunities at relatively low prices close to important technical support levels.

nasdaq chart
Nasdaq 100 chart
Trading analytics  

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    4470
Support 2    4440
Current price:   4495
Resistance 1    4532
Resistance 2    4555

NASDAQ 100 (NQ)   –   buy nasdaq   –   Purchases, if the quotes will move up after testing support for 4470. The goal – 4532. Stop-Loss = 4440

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Price of Platinum may rise to the level of 1180.0

Earlier this week, it has been published quarterly report on supply and demand of platinum from the World Platinum Investment Council. According to the data, in Q1 2015 the proposal was reduced to 1.34%. But the demand showed an increase of 5%. Net demand for platinum rose to 160 thousand. 45 thousand ounces. In Q4 2014.

Platinum deficit for 2015 will be maintained, which is able to push up the quotations of precious metals. In addition, metal prices are now at a low enough level that does not contribute to an increase in production. Against this background, in the medium term, the metal looks very interesting for shopping.

platinum price chart
Platinum chart

 Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    1120,0
Support 2    1086,0
Current price:   1052,4
Resistance 1    1178,0
Resistance 2    1200,0

Platinum (>PL)   –   buy platinum   –   Buy when prices rebound from the level of 1120.0. The goal – 1178.0 and 1200.0. Stop-Loss = 1086,0.

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

OIL: Goldman Sachs hit prices

Oil prices decline on Tuesday 19 August after analytics famous investment bank Goldman Sachs said they expected a drop in prices from the current relatively high levels due to continuing market imbalance between supply and demand.

Nevertheless, the imbalance between supply and demand is not so obvious as it was in late 2014. The growth rate of production in the United States in fact already cleared. When using the technology of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, which lie at the heart of the oil shale production wells are in operation for six months to a year. Given that the number of drilling rigs operating in the last six months has fallen by half, after a maximum of six months, production in the US is already begins to fall.

Accordingly, prices are unlikely to fall much from current levels and could be interesting to find long positions near the important technical support levels.

oil brent chart
Oil Brent chart
Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    65,15
Support 2    64,15
Current price:   65,61
Resistance 1    66,45
Resistance 2    67,38

Oil Brent (BRN)  –   buy oil   –  Purchases with a view to 66.45 or 67.38. Stop-Loss = 65,15

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.