Monthly Archives: April 2015

Oil and gold: a review of the market situation

Crude oil futures reduce the rise
Crude oil future lost a part of American growth, as the US dollar strengthened following the release of upbeat US data on applications for unemployment benefits. The dollar rose as the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week in the United States fell to its lowest level in 15 years. Such dynamics of the number of applications for unemployment benefits may indicate a more favorable than expected, the situation on the US labor market. Meanwhile, the results of April the price of oil could prove to be one of the most positive compared to other commodities, although prices are still more than 40% below the peak reached in June 2014.

Some analytics say that the recent rally was too premature, as the excess supply on the world oil market is preserved. According to the US Department of Energy, released on Wednesday, commercial stocks of crude oil last week rose 1.9 million barrels to 490.1 million barrels. Inventories increased less than expected, which indicates a reduction of excess supply in the country as the increased refining capacity utilization and slowing the growth of oil production. Oil reserves in Cushing terminal in Oklahoma dropped for the first 21 weeks, which is another positive signal for traders. “In North America, there is still a substantial excess supply of oil, but the volume of stocks seem to have stabilized at record levels, oil production reached a peak – said Norbert Rucker of Julius Baer. – Both of these trends are likely to persist”.

oil futures chart
Oil futures chart

Brent futures rose by more than 17% in April, as some investors bet on the fact that the bottom has been reached after nine months of decline. But prices have fallen about 43% since June, when futures rose to $ 116. Today, the spread between oil Brent and WTI of $ 7.12 per barrel compared with $ 7.26 at the close of the previous session.

The cost of June futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 59.40 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.June futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to 54.78 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Gold prices fell sharply

The price of gold fell below $ 1,200 after data showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week fell to the lowest since 2000, prompting optimism about the strength of the labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted, reaching 262,000 in the week ended April 25th. Economists had expected 300,000 new claims. At the same time data provided by the Ministry of Commerce, have shown that consumer spending rose moderately in March, recovering from weakness, marks the winter. However, a recent report suggests that Americans remain cautious, despite the cheap gasoline, and increased confidence.

According to the report, personal spending rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, compared with an increase of 0.2% in February (revised from + 0.1%). Experts expect that the cost will increase by 0.3%. Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose in March by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the amount of personal income was unchanged last month after rising 0.4% in February. It is worth noting the March figure was the weakest since December 2013. It was predicted that revenues will increase by 0.2%.

gold chart
Gold chart

A separate report showed that the index of labor costs in the US, or the change in prices of the civilian labor force for businesses and governments grew 0.7% in the first quarter, higher than the expected increase of 0.6%. The upbeat data eased worries about the strength of the economy and increased speculation that the Federal Reserve can return to indication of possible timing rate increases in the United States. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at the current level, but has made little additional clarity in the terms of the first rate rise in nearly a decade.

As a result of the monthly political meetings ended on Wednesday, the Fed said that it will take into account labor market conditions, inflation pressure and forecasts for the global economy when deciding on the timing of rate increases. Central Bank refused the specific binding to the potential range of the calendar hike in a statement that provoked market uncertainty with respect to forecasts, the timing of rate changes in the future. The decision was made after data released on Wednesday showed that the US economy grew in the first quarter of this year, only 0.2%, slowing from 2.2% in the last quarter of 2014, which was the worst dynamics over the past year. The recent series of disappointing US economic data undermined optimism about the strength of recovery, prompting speculation that the Fed will take the first rise in rates at the end of the year instead of the middle. The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1176.00 dollars per ounce.

TESLA Motors stock: waiting for a new

Tesla Motors stock may get a new impulse purchases in anticipation of the presentation of the new product line scheduled for April 30th. Based on publications in the media the new product are the batteries for the house, which allows to accumulate energy at night lower rate, and give it to the day when the rate is high.

Launching a new product extends the company’s profit. At the same time, in fact it is a new niche for the business in which the company can take the top spot.

tesla stock chart
Tesla Motors inc stock

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    227,93
Support 2    229,10
Current price:   229,96
Resistance 1    234,59
Resistance 2    237,25

Tesla Motors stock (TSLA)   –  buy tesla stock  –  Buy at 230. The purpose – 234,5 Stop-Loss-227,5

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes and do not guarantee the results obtained.

GOLD futures: there are chances of growth

Precious metal, finally got a catalyst for growth. Recent data from the US once again confirm that the rush to increase in the rate the Federal Reserve is clearly not worth it. There was a reduction in business activity in the service sector and manufacturing industry, earlier, a report on the labor market showed the slowest rate of growth of new jobs in December of 2013.

Consumer confidence showed a significant reduction (95.2 vs. 102.6 and 101.4 projected in March). All this is particularly true in the run-up to the decision on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which will be published on April 29. Most likely, the number of opponents in the June rate hike will increase, which will put additional pressure on the dollar. Consequently, gold futures has a chance of growth.

gold chart
Gold chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    1206,17
Support 2    1200,00
Current price:   1212,93
Resistance 1    1213,98
Resistance 2    1221,08

GOLD futures (XAU/USD)   –  buy gold   –    Buy prices in the breakdown of the level of 1213.98 to 1221.08 for the purpose. Stop-Loss = 1206,17

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.

DAX30: buy in the case of overcoming the resistance of 11910

Futures on the German stock index DAX30 (FDAX) try to find support in the 50-day moving average. Investors remain positive about the prospects for the euro zone’s largest economy in the near future. This optimism is also supported by the dynamics of leading macroeconomic indicators.

Data from the Ifo and ZEW beeped on accelerating growth. In addition, during the last press conference, Mario Draghi made it clear that while the European Central Bank is committed to implement a program of quantitative easing completely. Seek opportunities for shopping in the preparation of technical signals on the resumption of the uptrend.

dax 30 chart
DAX 30 chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1 11700
Support 2    11430
Current price:   11897
Resistance 1    11910
Resistance 2    12176

DAX30 (FDAX)   –   buy FDAX    –    Buy, if the quotes will close above the resistance level of 11910. Purpose – 12176 or 12424 Stop-Loss = 11690

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.

DOW JONES futures: data on orders for durable goods can trigger the growth

Dow Jones futures attempted to gain a foothold above the 200-hour moving average and a return to growth in conjunction with other major US stock indexes. NASDAQ Composite last updated 15-year high, playing back all of the losses incurred since the collapse of the “bubble economy“. Against the background of mixed macroeconomic statistics laid investors that the Fed will not rush to increase interest rates. Today’s data on orders for durable goods once again confirmed the ambiguity rate of recovery of the US economy.

So the main index gained 4.0% compared with the previous month and significantly exceeded analysts’ expectations, but its nucleus (less highly volatile components) dropped by 0.2% and was lower than the median forecast. Stock markets, recently worked again in the “bad news – good news“, but because the Dow can generate another round of growth. Seek opportunities for shopping in the preparation of technical signals the resumption of the uptrend.

dow jones chart
Dow Jones chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    17915
Support 2    17775
Current price:   18001
Resistance 1    18064
Resistance 2    18265

Dow Jones futures (YM)  –  buy Dow Jones (YM)  –   Buy, if the quotes will close above the resistance level of 18064. Purpose – 18265. Stop-Loss = 17910

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.

COPPER futures: quotes metal can resume the decline

A drop in prices of copper futures until restrained level 2.6453. However, red metal may continue to decline. There are several reasons. According to recent reports, China‘s economy shows cooling. The annual ratio in Q1 2015 GDP grew by only 7% after rising 7.3% in Q4 2014. In terms of nominal GDP, and here there is a slowdown in the 1st quarter of 2015 from 18.93 % to + 9.71%.

In addition worth considering easing of monetary policy. We should not forget that Chile and Peru have increased copper production by 190 thousand tons, thereby increasing the surplus metal that currently remains untapped.

copper futures chart
Copper futures chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    2,6453
Support 2    2,6022
Current price:   2,6845
Resistance 1    2,7026
Resistance 2    2,7563

Copper futures (HG)   –   sell copper  –   Sales down in the breakdown level 2.6453. The goal – 2.6022. Stop-Loss = 2,6749

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.

McDonald’s: anti-crisis plan

After the publication of weak quarterly financial statements for the McDonald’s 1st quarter of 2015, CEO Steve Easterbrook promised to provide a detailed turnaround plan to overcome the recession. This plan will be presented in the next month – pre May 4th. Publication of news shifted to negative investor sentiment toward purchases, resulting in a McDonald’s shares went up out of the downward channel.

The company McDonald’s struggling with a decline in sales and the weakening of the image. Easterbrook took over the company in March and has taken decisive steps to change the situation.

mcdonalds stock chart
McDonalds stock chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    97,83
Support 2    97,28
Current price:   98,8
Resistance 1    99,72
Resistance 2    100,72

McDonald’s (MCD)   –  buy MCD stock   –   Buy at rollback quotations zone 98,15. Objective – 99.7. Stop-Loss-97,28

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.

FACEBOOK stocks: waiting for growth in the area 86,00

Facebook stocks are trying to return to growth at the same time with the common market, in which the major indexes on Monday 13 April added about 0.2%.

In addition, investors give a positive assessment of the latest Facebook intentions to increase the role of video content found on the pages of their social network. Which was announced at the conference “F8-2015“.

Currently, video is one of the fastest ways to spread information of Facebook, has a much higher level of information about their visitors, than, for example, Youtube. Respectively, will be able to offer advertisers a much better selection for prepaid display. Seek opportunities for shopping in the preparation of technical signals the resumption of the uptrend.

facebook stock chart
Facebook stock chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    82,27
Support 2    80,98
Current price:   83,36
Resistance 1    83,45
Resistance 2    84,50

Facebook stocks (FB)  –   buy facebook stock  –   Buy, if the quotes will close above the resistance level of 83.45. Objective – 85.90. Stop-Loss = 82,25

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.

SILVER futures: the dynamics of futures positions indicating the presence of the potential to reduce

Despite the relatively high risks geopolitical precious metals remain under pressure. One of the main factors that have a negative impact on silver futures, is the strengthening of the dollar, which makes assets denominated in it cheaper. In addition, there is the growth of silver reserves in the Shanghai Stock Exchange against the closure of the weaknesses in the customs legislation of China.

As of April 9, figure jumped to 341.5 tonnes from 122.8 tonnes in the same period last year. This growth indicates a fairly low level of industrial demand. If we pay attention to the dynamics of futures positions, and they signal in favor of further falls. Net cash flow of silver fell by a decline in the number of long and short positions of growth (which increased significantly in the last week).

silver futures chart
Silver futures chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    16,000
Support 2    15,759
Current price:   16,046
Resistance 1    16,240
Resistance 2    16,500

SILVER futures (XAG/USD)   –   sell XAG/USD   –   In the breakdown of the prices the level of support considering selling 16,000 for the purpose at the level of 15.759. Stop-Loss = 16,240Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.

Bitcoins: there is no trust, there is no growth

Bitcoins demonstrates stable downtrend. I must say that this is partly due to a sufficiently high demand for the dollar, which has recently demonstrated market. But beyond that Bitcoin is and their own reasons for the decline. Confidence in the Cryptocurrency not restored, which largely do not contribute and there are rumors.

In particular, a newly elected member of the Board of Directors of the Bitcoins-Fund organization “on the verge of bankruptcy.” Naturally, these comments provoke another wave of flight from the instrument.

bitcoins chart
Bitcoin chart

Trading analytics

Support and resistance levels  
Support 1    208,38
Support 2    196,48
Current price:   221,09
Resistance 1    227,00
Resistance 2    235,22

Bitcoins (BTCUSD)  –  sell bitcoins   –   Sell the in case of breakdown of the price the level of support with a view to the level 208.38 at 185.34. Stop-Loss = 227,00

Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee the results obtained.